But, it did really well overseas!

I knew it would happen, and now it has. The US is still the biggest market for films in the world, but it's becoming less and less significant.

Perhaps the best way to show this is a look at the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.

2003-Pirates of the Caribbean: Domestic-$305 million, Overseas-$348 million,
Worldwide-$654 million
2006-Dead Man's Chest: Domestic-$423 million, Overseas-$643 million,
Worldwide-$1,066 million
2007-At World's End: Domestic-$309 million, Overseas-$654 million,
Worldwide-$963 million.

So, despite a mildly disappointing run domestically, At World's End made more overseas than the previous two pictures, not only that, but it's overseas tally was equal to the worldwide tally of the first film. This shows a great growth in the overseas market, but that's only the beginning.

2011-On Stranger Tides: Domestic-$233 million (so far), Overseas: $774 million(!So far!),
Worldwide-$1,008 million.

On stranger tides could surpass the worldwide gross of Dead Man's Chest, despite a massive drop in domestic grosses. In fact, the domestic gross was almost irrelevant to it's success!

This has been a definite trend in the summer's films.

Thor: $178M domestic, $262M overseas, $440M Worldwide.
The Hangover Part II: $248M domestic, $300M overseas, $548M worldwide.
Kung Fu Panda 2: $157M domestic, $374M overseas, $531M worldwide
X-Men First Class: $139M domestic, $196M overseas, $334M worldwide
Transformers 3: $162M domestic, $210M overseas, $372M worldwide.

Seems pretty clear. You'll notice I exempted Bridesmaids (one of the biggest domestic hits of the year) Green Lantern, Super 8 and Cars 2. All of these films are taking a slow-roll-out approach and we probably won't have a good idea of where they'll end up worldwide until the end of the month, when they open in more territories. Super 8 seems the most likely to disappoint overseas, but it should still easily match it's domestic gross.

June Preview

So, June is kind of a weird month. In may the studios bring out there brightest and best to kick-start the summer. July offers massive blockbusters to keep things afloat through August. June is sort of a waiting period between them...especially this year.

This time, I'll be comparing this June's releases and commenting on how things could turn out.

June 3
X-Men First Class
Predicted Opening: $70-80 Million
Predicted Final Gross: $175-210 million

June at least starts with a bang, with some worthy holdovers and an undoubtedly big debut. The last entry in the X-Men series, Wolverine, pulled $85 million opening weekend, but bled out quickly with a $179 million final tally. I don't think First Class will be able to pull that, since the TERRIBLE and redundant badger Wolverine is still fresh in people's minds. But if Thor can pull $66 million, than First Class should grab at least $70 up front, and almost certainly more than Wolverine by the end of its run. Last year we had Killers and Get him to the Greek, both major disappointments, and a weak set of Memorial day holdovers. I fully expect First Class alone will outgross the top four, and the rest is just gravy. This weekend will soar over the comparable weekend last year, when Shrek 4 led in its third weekend with just $25.5 million...it certainly couldn't be any worse, the top 5 held only $85.2 million.

June 10
Super 8
Predicted Opening Weekend: $55-65 Million
Predicted Total Gross: Not even gonna guess.

This one is tough to call. Super 8 could really take off, or it could be a non-starter. The real test though, will be how long it sticks around. If it's just another cloverfield, it will stop short of $150 million. If it's the new ET, it will soar past $200 million. Anyway though, I can't imagine a start of less than $50 mil, or above $65 mil. It will probably top last year's Karate Kid remake, and beat out X-Men for the #1 slot, but that's about all I can say. The other new opener is Judy Moody and the not bummer summer. Who cares? Overall, this weekend will again beat last year. With X-Men, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda as holdovers and super 8 as top opener, it will easily fly past $115.1 million top 5 gross, when Karate Kid and A-Team opened on top.

June 17
Green Lantern
Predicted Opening Weekend: $30-40 million
Predicted total Gross: $75-90 million

No one wants to see this movie. No one except comic book fans. And they will see it. But only once. Because it will suck. Everyone knows this. And that's why they won't see it.

Mr. Popper's Penguins
Predicted Opening Weekend: $18-23 million
Predicted Total Gross: $60-80 million

See above but replace comic book fans with families. This looks terrible, but it probably won't bomb outright. Any way this shakes out though, it will be tough for the top 5 to top last year's $166.3 million, when Toy Story 3 (yes Toy Story 3) opened to $110 million. Oops.

June 24
Cars 2
Predicted Opening Gross: $60-70 Million
Predicted Total Gross: $220-240 million

Last year Pixar had it's biggest movie ever (Toy Story 3, although Nemo is still they're #1 in attendance). This year...well they won't. Cars 2 will pull families and only families. Pretty much everyone over age 10 was lukewarm or downright hostile to the original, but the toys are so ubiquitous that the kiddies will have to see it. Probably twice. Still, no matter what I don't see it beating the original's total gross, and certainly not the original's attendance. Even so, it will be one of June's biggest hits.

Bad Teacher
No predictions.

Cameron Diaz new movie comes out on the same weekend as Knight and Day did last year. Bad omen? you bet.

Overall, this weekend should again trail last year's comparable weekend, at least as far as the top 5 is concerned. Last year the top 5 took $141.6 million last year. Don't count on it this year.

May Wrap-Up

Ohh...I'm not that good at this.

April 29-Fast Five
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $83 million
Predicted total Gross: $130 million
Actual Total Gross: $197 million and counting.

Fast Five broke out beyond expectations and remains the top film of 2011, although The Hangover and Pirates sequels are both on the brink of passing it. Color me pleasantly surprised.

May 6-Thor
My Predicted Opening: $50 million
Actual Opening: $66 million
Predicted Total Gross: $120 million
Actual Total Gross: $162 million and counting.

Thor did better than I expected, but is hardly a breakout hit. It won't make $200 million, making it a bit more frontloaded than many were hoping. Good word of mouth can only do so much with something this stupid.

May 13-Who Cares? Bridesmaids did okay I guess.

May 20-Pirates 4
My Predicted Opening: At least $70 million
Actual Opening: $90 million.
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $164 million and counting.

A lot fo people were disappointed with On Stranger Tides $90 million opening. This people were unreasonable. Most (normal) people HATE HATE HATED At world's End, so this was a big win, and the highest end of where I would have predicted.

May 26-Hangover 2
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $86 million
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $135 million and just getting started.

Call it optimism. I didn't think America would lap up the same garbage a second time. Alas, the Hangover Part II made $135 million in five days, accounting for nearly 50% of total memorial day business. Sigh. Thankfully, word of mouth is Bad bad bad, so it might peter out before passing up the first horrible film's completely undeserved $277 million total.

Kung Fu Panda 2
My Predicted Opening: $70 million
Actual Opening: $48 million
Predicted Total Gross: $250 million
Actual Total Gross: $67 million and just getting started.

More optimism. For the record, this movie is awesome and deserves to make way more than this. Thankfully, most people agree with me and the word of mouth will be good. Still, reaching the first movie's $215 million total will be difficult, considering it's three day weekend was down 20% from the last film (even more so in attendance). Here's hoping it pulls a How To Train your Dragon, but it only has 29 days until Cars 2 opens, so I'll give it a safer goal of beating Madagascar 2 (which has earned a sequel) hitting the $180's, and making a killing overseas (which seems likely). PLEASE MAKE KUNG FU PANDA 3!

Overall thoughts:
In my last post I said I probably overestimated a few pictures, it looks like the opposite is mostly true. It was a record breaking memorial day (although not a record breaking may overall), but I still hold to my comments about June: very sketchy.

Stay tuned...

Universal will Survive

Despicable Me went far and above my expectations this weekend, earning over $60 million. This is especially impressive since it only cost $69 million to produce. I don't see why so much money is spent on animated films, this doesn't look much cheaper than the other animated features this year, which were all more than twice that much to produce. The real news here though, is this is the first time a Universal picture has been #1 since "Couple's Retreat" last October. That's a long dry spell. It's also Universal's biggest opening since "Fast and Furious" last April. Fast and Furious was the highest grossing film of the year for Universal, but it ranked #17 on the overall chart. It's no secret that the studio has been in trouble as of late, their last picture to make over $200 million was "The Bourne Ultimatum" in 2007. In that time, WB has had seven pictures to cross that mark. Fox has had 3, Sony managed 1, Disney afforded 5, and Paramount has had a shocking eight. Despicable Me could conceivably cross $200, but it's certainly not money in the bank. Still, this is good news for a studio with only one profitable film this summer, Get him to the Greek.

Weekend Box Office Predictions July 9-11

Despicable Me
Predicted Opening: $45 million
Predicted Final Gross: $150 million

Despicable Me has done a great job of raising awareness. For the past three or four months ads for the thing have been non-stop. This may end up turning people off of the film, but I doubt it as most of the ads are quite appealing (well, the first time you see them). I imagine this will come in mid-range for animation, below Pixar, but well within Dreamwork's range. It should be somewhere around How to Train your Dragon in terms of initial attendance, but I expect it to drop-off more quickly. Although the movie is spaced out a full two months before the next animated feature, Alpha and Omega (Which looks terrible by the way), it will be facing competition in the family market quite soon. July 16th, the Sorcerer's Apprentice opens, and while I don't see it being gangbusters, it could hurt Despicable Me a little. Perhaps more worrisome is Ramona and Beezus on the 23rd, and then Cats and Dogs 2 on the 30th. By this time though, Despicable me should have made most of its money, so it will do all right, just not How to Train your Dragon numbers.

Predators
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50 million

On the opposite end of the marketing spectrum is Predators. Hardly anyone seems to know this is coming out and even fewer people care. It seems like it will appeal to the hard-core Predator fan-base, but outside of that I'm predicting a bomb. Even if it does okay its first weekend though, it will crash next weekend when Inception opens. This seems doomed, now all it can hope for is a strong life on DVD and the development of a cult following.

Breaking Even in Film

It's a generally understood fact in Hollywood, that to make money on a film you have to surpass the budget. Usually, if the worldwide gross is twice the film's budget, it is considered to have broken even, and is typically considered successful, considering the money that will be made on DVD. Why double? Due to marketing costs, and the fact that about 50% of the gross actually goes back to the studios. Considering that, even films considered successful often don't make money until the DVD comes out. I consider breaking even the most important thing for a film to achieve, so I'm going to list the films this summer that have done so, and in future posts I may include more of them...just cuz I wanted to. Note: While production budgets are readily available, marketing costs are usually kept under wraps, so that part will be conjecture on my part. Usually there's one wide release every week that manages to actually make money.

Iron Man 2
Production Budget: $200 million
Domestic Gross: $308 million
Overseas: $303 million
Worldwide: $611 million

Even when marketing is taken into account, you can't deny that this movie made money. Despite a weaker overall performance domestically, this has surpassed the first film worldwide.

Letters to Juliet
Production Budget: $30 million
Domestic Gross: $51 million
Overseas: $8.9 million
Worldwide: $59.9 million

Okay, this technically has not broken even, but it will within a few days, and then some once the overseas market kicks in (it has yet to be released in most markets). This is a good example though of how difficult it is to break even on a film, even with a modest budget. Taking into account marketing costs, this movie probably won't make money till the DVD comes out, but I think the studio was counting on that.

Shrek Forever After
Production Budget: $165 million
Domestic: $233 million
Overseas: $137 million
Worldwide: $370 million

Despite performing far below the other Shrek films, (although it has better legs than Shrek 3) Shrek 4 has managed to more than break even, and is still just getting started on the foreign side of things. With marketing, it still has a ways to go but will probably make it by the time all the foreign markets are tallied.

Sex and the City 2
Production Budget: $100 million
Domestic: $93 million
Overseas: $172 million
Worldwide: $265 million

Another movie that did below expectations domestically, Sex and the City 2 has managed to make money, despite a bloated budget and horrible reviews. The DVD will have to recoup most of the marketing costs, but (sadly) a third film is not entirely out of the equation...blech.

The Karate Kid
Production Budget: $40 million
Domestic: $155 million
Overseas: $24 million
Worldwide: $179 million

A run away success, which I predicted. No matter how much was spent on marketing the studios have made a boatload of cash on this picture, and it will only increase, since it has yet to launch in many major overseas markets, and is still playing strongly here in the US.

Toy Story 3
Production Budget: $200 million
Domestic: $301 million
Overseas: $151 million
Worldwide: $452 million

Who didn't expect this? Even with a $200 million budget to conquer, this is one of the most recent films to make it's money back. It's still playing strongly here, and has yet to launch in many places overseas. When all is said and done on the box office side, this will probably be the highest grossing film of the summer. Almost certainly.

Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Production Budget: $65 million
Domestic: $175 million
Foreign: $100 million
Worldwide: $275 million

After only six days of release, Eclipse is one of the most profitable films of the year, having made more than 4 times its budget back. In the end its profits will be unimaginable, proving that a big budget is almost always a hindrance more than a help. Take notes Hollywood, and you can all make money. (preferably however, have better stories than Twilight, my point is special effects and big names do not box office make)

4th of July Weekend Box Office Predictions

Next weekend Twilight: Eclipse opens and will doubtless dominate the box office, the real question is how high it will fly, and whether fellow opener "The Last Airbender" will stand up tall beneath the behemoth, a la "Day After Tommorow" in 2004, or crash and burn a la...Jonah Hex. Let's see what I think.

Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000

Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.

The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000

The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.

More Box Office Predictions...and Why I didn't predict last week

So last week before the weekend came up, predictions for the Karate Kid were in the $20-$30 range. I had planned to predict in the $50-$60, considering all the buzz I've seen from it, not online but from, you know, real people. After seeing the "professional" predictions however, my self-esteem was shattered, and I thought, "I really must know nothing about the box office business" and decided not to do a predictions post. Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have stayed true. No one was predicting Karate Kid to do as well as I said, but it turns out I was right and they were wrong. I just wish now that I would have said I was right, as now no one will believe me anyway.

There is a silver lining though, as I was going to predict A-Team in the $30-$40 range, but it underperformed. Still, that's where most people were predicting, so I would have been okay on that level.

Moving on, let's look at next week, and this time I won't back down.

Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend Prediction: $120-125 million
Predicted Total Gross: $400 million +

This week I'm predicting much of what helped the Karate Kid, on a much larger scale. Where do I begin? 1. This is the animated event picture of the summer, after Shrek 4 disappointed, this is going to clean up in a big way. 2. All the kids who grew up with Toy Story are going. This is now a full two generations of kids. 3. Everyone seems extremely positive towards this film. I'm convinced that even the most hardcore "Godfather" fan, is secretly going to see this, and the critics will be positive even if it sucks. Look out Karate Kid, you're about to get pwned.

Jonah Hex
Opening Weekend Prediction: $10-20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50-60 million

Can you say, bad buzz? Fans of the comic books show about as much interest as the rest of us in this movie, and that's a bad sign. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone excited about this film. While counter-programming Toy Story 3 seems like a good move, I think it will ultimately back-fire since Toy Story 3 will have extremely broad appeal. Maybe Jonah will find some life on DVD, but in the theaters I'm not expecting much at all.

Why Twilight is Genius

SHOCKING TITLE GET YOUR ATTENTION?

Good, now listen up, this is from a box office perspective, this is why Summit Entertainment studio heads are some of the smartest people alive.

Summit somehow acquired the rights to the enormously (and oddly) popular Twilight franchise for pittance. Since the books require little in the way of a massive budget, and Summit had little cash to spare, they churned out the first film for a mere $37 million. It went on to make $192 million domestically, and $216 million overseas. $408 million worldwide vs. $37 million budget. Dayang.

However, Summit realized the Twilight craze would soon fade, and managed to churn out a sequel in less than a year. Where most studios would double the first film's tiny budget, Summit kept cool, raising the budget only $13 million, to $50 million. New Moon handily broke the all-time opening day record, with $73 million dollars in the till after only 24 hours. It went on to make $297 million domestically and $413 million overseas. $709 million worldwide vs. $50 million budget. Shoot.

At this point even the most conservative studio execs would lose their restraint and green-light a production of $100 million plus. Twilight Saga: Eclipse comes out at the end of June, with a mere $65 million price-tag.

I salute you, Summit. But the real genius perhaps lies in the fact that the Twilight films require little money to make, and bring in the big bucks. Love it or hate it, Twilight is a phenomenon, and it will be gone soon, which is why the fourth film has recently been split into two, to make it last that much longer.

Bogus Box-Office Bumblings

So far this summer the money aspect of film has been...disappointing.

Iron Man 2 shattered no records.
Robin Hood didn't have any heroics.
Shrek 4 dropped steeply from the last film.
And now, Sex in the City 2 and Prince of Persia both underperformed.

What's in store for June? Can the picture business bounce back? Let's take a look.

June 4

Marmaduke
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$30 mil.
Predicted Total Gross: $80-$90 mil.

It looks awful, but this sort of thing has done well lately. Alvin & the Chipmunks, G-Force and Beverly Hills Chihuaha are recent examples of this. Moving on.

Killers
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $60-75 mil

This could suffer, due to the recent Bounty Hunter which is in similar territory, as well as the later-in-the-month appearance of Knight & Day. It will probably find modest success, with breakout potential for much more, largely based on Ashton Kutcher's bankabillity with the younger crowd.

Get him to the Greek
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $70-$90 mil

Judd Apatow is an interesting animal from a box office perspective. He's topped $100 million a few times, but most of his stuff is more mid-range, and he had 1 bomb (Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story). This will probably do fairly well.

Splice
Predicted Opening Weekend: $12-$14 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $35-$40 mil

Foreign Horror does better with critics than American stuff, but audiences and critics rarely line-up. I'm predicting solid returns, but on such a busy weekend, something's gotta bomb, and it may well be Splice.

Note: As stated earlier, something's gotta bomb. I predict that at least one of my predictions is vastly overstating actual business, and something will be a surprise failure on this weekend.

Come back next week for more.

What we in the industry refer to as, Legs.

Back in the day, films would remain in theaters for several months, showing small drops or gains from week to week, slowly raising their tally to blockbuster numbers. Today, the opening weekend is everything for big films, and only overwhelmingly good word-of-mouth can keep a movie going after a lack-luster start.

Looking back to 1980, the top five films were:

The Empire Strikes Back-$210,000,000, 5.2% from opening weekend.
9 to 5-$103,000,000, 3.8% from opening weekend.
Stir Crazy-$101,000,000, 8.6%, from opening weekend.
Airplane!-$83,000,000, (opening unknown)
Any Which way you Can-$71,000,000, 11.4% from opening weekend.

Now lets look at 2009:

Avatar-$745,000,000, 10.3% from opening weekend
Transformers 2-$402,000,000, 27.1% from opening weekend
Harry Potter 6-$302,000,000, 25.8% from opening weekend
New Moon-$297,000,000, 48.2% from opening weekend
Up-$293,000,000, 23.2% from opening weekend

2009 is probably not the best example of this trend however, as Avatar had shocking longevity, and a holiday release, which always marginalizes the opening weekend. Transformers 2 had a five day opening, meaning the opening day is not included in the opening weekend. Harry Potter 6, also had a five day opening.

These days, films with significant legs are a real rarity. One such film is "How to Train Your Dragon". After superior word of mouth (98% on rotten tomatoes) the movie has maintained a steady stream of cash since its somewhat tepid premiere ($43,000,000), and managed to take #1 this weekend. This is an extremely rare case of a film retaking #1 after falling out, something that hasn't happened in a very long time, perhaps ever for a film in its fourth weekend. It now totals $159,000,000, and will probably cross $200 million by the end of its run.

By comparison, Transformers 2 earned $200 million in its five day opening and struggled to get over the $400 million mark. Word of mouth really does help a film.