Universal will Survive

Despicable Me went far and above my expectations this weekend, earning over $60 million. This is especially impressive since it only cost $69 million to produce. I don't see why so much money is spent on animated films, this doesn't look much cheaper than the other animated features this year, which were all more than twice that much to produce. The real news here though, is this is the first time a Universal picture has been #1 since "Couple's Retreat" last October. That's a long dry spell. It's also Universal's biggest opening since "Fast and Furious" last April. Fast and Furious was the highest grossing film of the year for Universal, but it ranked #17 on the overall chart. It's no secret that the studio has been in trouble as of late, their last picture to make over $200 million was "The Bourne Ultimatum" in 2007. In that time, WB has had seven pictures to cross that mark. Fox has had 3, Sony managed 1, Disney afforded 5, and Paramount has had a shocking eight. Despicable Me could conceivably cross $200, but it's certainly not money in the bank. Still, this is good news for a studio with only one profitable film this summer, Get him to the Greek.

Weekend Box Office Predictions July 9-11

Despicable Me
Predicted Opening: $45 million
Predicted Final Gross: $150 million

Despicable Me has done a great job of raising awareness. For the past three or four months ads for the thing have been non-stop. This may end up turning people off of the film, but I doubt it as most of the ads are quite appealing (well, the first time you see them). I imagine this will come in mid-range for animation, below Pixar, but well within Dreamwork's range. It should be somewhere around How to Train your Dragon in terms of initial attendance, but I expect it to drop-off more quickly. Although the movie is spaced out a full two months before the next animated feature, Alpha and Omega (Which looks terrible by the way), it will be facing competition in the family market quite soon. July 16th, the Sorcerer's Apprentice opens, and while I don't see it being gangbusters, it could hurt Despicable Me a little. Perhaps more worrisome is Ramona and Beezus on the 23rd, and then Cats and Dogs 2 on the 30th. By this time though, Despicable me should have made most of its money, so it will do all right, just not How to Train your Dragon numbers.

Predators
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50 million

On the opposite end of the marketing spectrum is Predators. Hardly anyone seems to know this is coming out and even fewer people care. It seems like it will appeal to the hard-core Predator fan-base, but outside of that I'm predicting a bomb. Even if it does okay its first weekend though, it will crash next weekend when Inception opens. This seems doomed, now all it can hope for is a strong life on DVD and the development of a cult following.