Next weekend Twilight: Eclipse opens and will doubtless dominate the box office, the real question is how high it will fly, and whether fellow opener "The Last Airbender" will stand up tall beneath the behemoth, a la "Day After Tommorow" in 2004, or crash and burn a la...Jonah Hex. Let's see what I think.
Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000
Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.
The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000
The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.
Showing posts with label Genius. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Genius. Show all posts
Monday, June 28, 2010
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Why Twilight is Genius
SHOCKING TITLE GET YOUR ATTENTION?
Good, now listen up, this is from a box office perspective, this is why Summit Entertainment studio heads are some of the smartest people alive.
Summit somehow acquired the rights to the enormously (and oddly) popular Twilight franchise for pittance. Since the books require little in the way of a massive budget, and Summit had little cash to spare, they churned out the first film for a mere $37 million. It went on to make $192 million domestically, and $216 million overseas. $408 million worldwide vs. $37 million budget. Dayang.
However, Summit realized the Twilight craze would soon fade, and managed to churn out a sequel in less than a year. Where most studios would double the first film's tiny budget, Summit kept cool, raising the budget only $13 million, to $50 million. New Moon handily broke the all-time opening day record, with $73 million dollars in the till after only 24 hours. It went on to make $297 million domestically and $413 million overseas. $709 million worldwide vs. $50 million budget. Shoot.
At this point even the most conservative studio execs would lose their restraint and green-light a production of $100 million plus. Twilight Saga: Eclipse comes out at the end of June, with a mere $65 million price-tag.
I salute you, Summit. But the real genius perhaps lies in the fact that the Twilight films require little money to make, and bring in the big bucks. Love it or hate it, Twilight is a phenomenon, and it will be gone soon, which is why the fourth film has recently been split into two, to make it last that much longer.
Good, now listen up, this is from a box office perspective, this is why Summit Entertainment studio heads are some of the smartest people alive.
Summit somehow acquired the rights to the enormously (and oddly) popular Twilight franchise for pittance. Since the books require little in the way of a massive budget, and Summit had little cash to spare, they churned out the first film for a mere $37 million. It went on to make $192 million domestically, and $216 million overseas. $408 million worldwide vs. $37 million budget. Dayang.
However, Summit realized the Twilight craze would soon fade, and managed to churn out a sequel in less than a year. Where most studios would double the first film's tiny budget, Summit kept cool, raising the budget only $13 million, to $50 million. New Moon handily broke the all-time opening day record, with $73 million dollars in the till after only 24 hours. It went on to make $297 million domestically and $413 million overseas. $709 million worldwide vs. $50 million budget. Shoot.
At this point even the most conservative studio execs would lose their restraint and green-light a production of $100 million plus. Twilight Saga: Eclipse comes out at the end of June, with a mere $65 million price-tag.
I salute you, Summit. But the real genius perhaps lies in the fact that the Twilight films require little money to make, and bring in the big bucks. Love it or hate it, Twilight is a phenomenon, and it will be gone soon, which is why the fourth film has recently been split into two, to make it last that much longer.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Starting a Blog
Today it begins. I now have a place to ramble about whatever I want whenever I want. Yay! More substance coming when I feel like it.
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