4th of July Weekend Box Office Predictions

Next weekend Twilight: Eclipse opens and will doubtless dominate the box office, the real question is how high it will fly, and whether fellow opener "The Last Airbender" will stand up tall beneath the behemoth, a la "Day After Tommorow" in 2004, or crash and burn a la...Jonah Hex. Let's see what I think.

Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000

Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.

The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000

The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.