More Box Office Predictions...and Why I didn't predict last week

So last week before the weekend came up, predictions for the Karate Kid were in the $20-$30 range. I had planned to predict in the $50-$60, considering all the buzz I've seen from it, not online but from, you know, real people. After seeing the "professional" predictions however, my self-esteem was shattered, and I thought, "I really must know nothing about the box office business" and decided not to do a predictions post. Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have stayed true. No one was predicting Karate Kid to do as well as I said, but it turns out I was right and they were wrong. I just wish now that I would have said I was right, as now no one will believe me anyway.

There is a silver lining though, as I was going to predict A-Team in the $30-$40 range, but it underperformed. Still, that's where most people were predicting, so I would have been okay on that level.

Moving on, let's look at next week, and this time I won't back down.

Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend Prediction: $120-125 million
Predicted Total Gross: $400 million +

This week I'm predicting much of what helped the Karate Kid, on a much larger scale. Where do I begin? 1. This is the animated event picture of the summer, after Shrek 4 disappointed, this is going to clean up in a big way. 2. All the kids who grew up with Toy Story are going. This is now a full two generations of kids. 3. Everyone seems extremely positive towards this film. I'm convinced that even the most hardcore "Godfather" fan, is secretly going to see this, and the critics will be positive even if it sucks. Look out Karate Kid, you're about to get pwned.

Jonah Hex
Opening Weekend Prediction: $10-20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50-60 million

Can you say, bad buzz? Fans of the comic books show about as much interest as the rest of us in this movie, and that's a bad sign. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone excited about this film. While counter-programming Toy Story 3 seems like a good move, I think it will ultimately back-fire since Toy Story 3 will have extremely broad appeal. Maybe Jonah will find some life on DVD, but in the theaters I'm not expecting much at all.