I knew it would happen, and now it has. The US is still the biggest market for films in the world, but it's becoming less and less significant.
Perhaps the best way to show this is a look at the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.
2003-Pirates of the Caribbean: Domestic-$305 million, Overseas-$348 million,
Worldwide-$654 million
2006-Dead Man's Chest: Domestic-$423 million, Overseas-$643 million,
Worldwide-$1,066 million
2007-At World's End: Domestic-$309 million, Overseas-$654 million,
Worldwide-$963 million.
So, despite a mildly disappointing run domestically, At World's End made more overseas than the previous two pictures, not only that, but it's overseas tally was equal to the worldwide tally of the first film. This shows a great growth in the overseas market, but that's only the beginning.
2011-On Stranger Tides: Domestic-$233 million (so far), Overseas: $774 million(!So far!),
Worldwide-$1,008 million.
On stranger tides could surpass the worldwide gross of Dead Man's Chest, despite a massive drop in domestic grosses. In fact, the domestic gross was almost irrelevant to it's success!
This has been a definite trend in the summer's films.
Thor: $178M domestic, $262M overseas, $440M Worldwide.
The Hangover Part II: $248M domestic, $300M overseas, $548M worldwide.
Kung Fu Panda 2: $157M domestic, $374M overseas, $531M worldwide
X-Men First Class: $139M domestic, $196M overseas, $334M worldwide
Transformers 3: $162M domestic, $210M overseas, $372M worldwide.
Seems pretty clear. You'll notice I exempted Bridesmaids (one of the biggest domestic hits of the year) Green Lantern, Super 8 and Cars 2. All of these films are taking a slow-roll-out approach and we probably won't have a good idea of where they'll end up worldwide until the end of the month, when they open in more territories. Super 8 seems the most likely to disappoint overseas, but it should still easily match it's domestic gross.
Showing posts with label the hangover part II. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the hangover part II. Show all posts
Monday, July 4, 2011
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
May Wrap-Up
Ohh...I'm not that good at this.
April 29-Fast Five
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $83 million
Predicted total Gross: $130 million
Actual Total Gross: $197 million and counting.
Fast Five broke out beyond expectations and remains the top film of 2011, although The Hangover and Pirates sequels are both on the brink of passing it. Color me pleasantly surprised.
May 6-Thor
My Predicted Opening: $50 million
Actual Opening: $66 million
Predicted Total Gross: $120 million
Actual Total Gross: $162 million and counting.
Thor did better than I expected, but is hardly a breakout hit. It won't make $200 million, making it a bit more frontloaded than many were hoping. Good word of mouth can only do so much with something this stupid.
May 13-Who Cares? Bridesmaids did okay I guess.
May 20-Pirates 4
My Predicted Opening: At least $70 million
Actual Opening: $90 million.
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $164 million and counting.
A lot fo people were disappointed with On Stranger Tides $90 million opening. This people were unreasonable. Most (normal) people HATE HATE HATED At world's End, so this was a big win, and the highest end of where I would have predicted.
May 26-Hangover 2
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $86 million
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $135 million and just getting started.
Call it optimism. I didn't think America would lap up the same garbage a second time. Alas, the Hangover Part II made $135 million in five days, accounting for nearly 50% of total memorial day business. Sigh. Thankfully, word of mouth is Bad bad bad, so it might peter out before passing up the first horrible film's completely undeserved $277 million total.
Kung Fu Panda 2
My Predicted Opening: $70 million
Actual Opening: $48 million
Predicted Total Gross: $250 million
Actual Total Gross: $67 million and just getting started.
More optimism. For the record, this movie is awesome and deserves to make way more than this. Thankfully, most people agree with me and the word of mouth will be good. Still, reaching the first movie's $215 million total will be difficult, considering it's three day weekend was down 20% from the last film (even more so in attendance). Here's hoping it pulls a How To Train your Dragon, but it only has 29 days until Cars 2 opens, so I'll give it a safer goal of beating Madagascar 2 (which has earned a sequel) hitting the $180's, and making a killing overseas (which seems likely). PLEASE MAKE KUNG FU PANDA 3!
Overall thoughts:
In my last post I said I probably overestimated a few pictures, it looks like the opposite is mostly true. It was a record breaking memorial day (although not a record breaking may overall), but I still hold to my comments about June: very sketchy.
Stay tuned...
April 29-Fast Five
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $83 million
Predicted total Gross: $130 million
Actual Total Gross: $197 million and counting.
Fast Five broke out beyond expectations and remains the top film of 2011, although The Hangover and Pirates sequels are both on the brink of passing it. Color me pleasantly surprised.
May 6-Thor
My Predicted Opening: $50 million
Actual Opening: $66 million
Predicted Total Gross: $120 million
Actual Total Gross: $162 million and counting.
Thor did better than I expected, but is hardly a breakout hit. It won't make $200 million, making it a bit more frontloaded than many were hoping. Good word of mouth can only do so much with something this stupid.
May 13-Who Cares? Bridesmaids did okay I guess.
May 20-Pirates 4
My Predicted Opening: At least $70 million
Actual Opening: $90 million.
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $164 million and counting.
A lot fo people were disappointed with On Stranger Tides $90 million opening. This people were unreasonable. Most (normal) people HATE HATE HATED At world's End, so this was a big win, and the highest end of where I would have predicted.
May 26-Hangover 2
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $86 million
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $135 million and just getting started.
Call it optimism. I didn't think America would lap up the same garbage a second time. Alas, the Hangover Part II made $135 million in five days, accounting for nearly 50% of total memorial day business. Sigh. Thankfully, word of mouth is Bad bad bad, so it might peter out before passing up the first horrible film's completely undeserved $277 million total.
Kung Fu Panda 2
My Predicted Opening: $70 million
Actual Opening: $48 million
Predicted Total Gross: $250 million
Actual Total Gross: $67 million and just getting started.
More optimism. For the record, this movie is awesome and deserves to make way more than this. Thankfully, most people agree with me and the word of mouth will be good. Still, reaching the first movie's $215 million total will be difficult, considering it's three day weekend was down 20% from the last film (even more so in attendance). Here's hoping it pulls a How To Train your Dragon, but it only has 29 days until Cars 2 opens, so I'll give it a safer goal of beating Madagascar 2 (which has earned a sequel) hitting the $180's, and making a killing overseas (which seems likely). PLEASE MAKE KUNG FU PANDA 3!
Overall thoughts:
In my last post I said I probably overestimated a few pictures, it looks like the opposite is mostly true. It was a record breaking memorial day (although not a record breaking may overall), but I still hold to my comments about June: very sketchy.
Stay tuned...
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Summer Movie Preview: Part 1-May: The Kick-Off
Summer movie season starts in may. Here are the major releases and how much I think they'll make.
April 29
Wait, April? May starts in May you idiot! Well it starts a week earlier this year with:
FAST FIVE (Aka Fast and Furious 5, aka 5 Fast 5 Furious, aka Fast and Furious: This one has Dwayne Johnson)
Est Opening Weekend: Around $60 million
Est total gross: $130 million
Fast and Furious has something of a sordid history, but the last installment made a suprisingly strong $71 million it's opening weekend in April 2009 (outgrossing Tokyo Drift, the previous installment, in just three days), en route to a front-loaded $155 million. I don't expect this movie to match that one's hieghts though. Fast and Furious came out three years after nobody saw Tokyo Drift. It was really more like a six-year absence for the series, and an eight year absence between titles featuring Vin Diesel. Crazy stupid action movies just weren't made often. Now they are, and so I expect a softer, but still huge, opening for the fifth chapter, leading to a relatively small total. Dwayne Johnson is boss.
May 6
THOR (Aka Tor, aka Kenneth Branagh sells out, aka Worst Movie Ever)
Est. Opening Weekend-Around $50 million
Est. Total Gross-$120 million
Thor is not the next Iron Man. It will lose business to the second weekend of Fast Five, but it should hold well against the nothingness that launches May 13. Overall, expect a pretty average gross, falling short of its $150 million. The fanboys have been brainwashed into liking it, but basically no one else will attend.
May 13
NOTHING WORTH NOTING COMES OUT! JUST MORE GARBAGE!
May 20
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (aka Jack is Back, aka This one cost half what the last one did, aka Let's hope this doesn't suck)
Est opening weekend-$70+ million
Est Total Gross-$200 million
This is something of a wildcard. It could pull $90 million out of thin air or it could struggle to hit $50. Whatever the case, it won't match the $114 million opening of At World's End, for the simple reason that At World's End sucked. Bad. Also the dramatic stakes simply aren't there, and there's been virtually no real money shots (Because a relatively modest $140 million was spent here, versus $300 million for the last installment). Even so, it should be a success, Captain Jack is an icon at this point and it's been long enough for people to forgive At World's End (Plus there are a few idiots who actually liked that movie, so...) Expect it to keep up well over memorial day, and keep going throughout June...unless it really sucks.
May 26 (yeah, thursday, because Indiana Jones did it and had a truckload of money over a five day Memorial day weekend back in 2008)
The Hangover Part II
Est Opening: Around $60 million (80 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $200 million
The Hangover Part II is the hangover part I, but this time it's in Bangcok. This has turned off the more intelligent potential viewers, but I don't think they're what made the first one a hit anyway. Expect around $80 million over the five day memorial weekend, falling fast and ending around $200 million...although I wouldn't be surprised if it did a lot less than that.
Kung Fu Panda 2
Est Opening: Around $70 million (nearly 100 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $250 million
I fully expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to surpass the first one in terms of gross. Opening on memorial day, and playing through june without family competition, it should do exceedingly well for dreamworks. The first Kung Fu Panda was Dreamworks best received film since Shrek 2. Jack Black isn't the star he was three years ago (coming off of his latest bomb "Gulliver's Travels") but I wonder if he was that much of a draw three years ago either.
So overall the summer will get off to a good start, even if I've overestimated a few pictures. June however, is a bit more sketchy.
April 29
Wait, April? May starts in May you idiot! Well it starts a week earlier this year with:
FAST FIVE (Aka Fast and Furious 5, aka 5 Fast 5 Furious, aka Fast and Furious: This one has Dwayne Johnson)
Est Opening Weekend: Around $60 million
Est total gross: $130 million
Fast and Furious has something of a sordid history, but the last installment made a suprisingly strong $71 million it's opening weekend in April 2009 (outgrossing Tokyo Drift, the previous installment, in just three days), en route to a front-loaded $155 million. I don't expect this movie to match that one's hieghts though. Fast and Furious came out three years after nobody saw Tokyo Drift. It was really more like a six-year absence for the series, and an eight year absence between titles featuring Vin Diesel. Crazy stupid action movies just weren't made often. Now they are, and so I expect a softer, but still huge, opening for the fifth chapter, leading to a relatively small total. Dwayne Johnson is boss.
May 6
THOR (Aka Tor, aka Kenneth Branagh sells out, aka Worst Movie Ever)
Est. Opening Weekend-Around $50 million
Est. Total Gross-$120 million
Thor is not the next Iron Man. It will lose business to the second weekend of Fast Five, but it should hold well against the nothingness that launches May 13. Overall, expect a pretty average gross, falling short of its $150 million. The fanboys have been brainwashed into liking it, but basically no one else will attend.
May 13
NOTHING WORTH NOTING COMES OUT! JUST MORE GARBAGE!
May 20
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (aka Jack is Back, aka This one cost half what the last one did, aka Let's hope this doesn't suck)
Est opening weekend-$70+ million
Est Total Gross-$200 million
This is something of a wildcard. It could pull $90 million out of thin air or it could struggle to hit $50. Whatever the case, it won't match the $114 million opening of At World's End, for the simple reason that At World's End sucked. Bad. Also the dramatic stakes simply aren't there, and there's been virtually no real money shots (Because a relatively modest $140 million was spent here, versus $300 million for the last installment). Even so, it should be a success, Captain Jack is an icon at this point and it's been long enough for people to forgive At World's End (Plus there are a few idiots who actually liked that movie, so...) Expect it to keep up well over memorial day, and keep going throughout June...unless it really sucks.
May 26 (yeah, thursday, because Indiana Jones did it and had a truckload of money over a five day Memorial day weekend back in 2008)
The Hangover Part II
Est Opening: Around $60 million (80 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $200 million
The Hangover Part II is the hangover part I, but this time it's in Bangcok. This has turned off the more intelligent potential viewers, but I don't think they're what made the first one a hit anyway. Expect around $80 million over the five day memorial weekend, falling fast and ending around $200 million...although I wouldn't be surprised if it did a lot less than that.
Kung Fu Panda 2
Est Opening: Around $70 million (nearly 100 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $250 million
I fully expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to surpass the first one in terms of gross. Opening on memorial day, and playing through june without family competition, it should do exceedingly well for dreamworks. The first Kung Fu Panda was Dreamworks best received film since Shrek 2. Jack Black isn't the star he was three years ago (coming off of his latest bomb "Gulliver's Travels") but I wonder if he was that much of a draw three years ago either.
So overall the summer will get off to a good start, even if I've overestimated a few pictures. June however, is a bit more sketchy.
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