Despicable Me
Predicted Opening: $45 million
Predicted Final Gross: $150 million
Despicable Me has done a great job of raising awareness. For the past three or four months ads for the thing have been non-stop. This may end up turning people off of the film, but I doubt it as most of the ads are quite appealing (well, the first time you see them). I imagine this will come in mid-range for animation, below Pixar, but well within Dreamwork's range. It should be somewhere around How to Train your Dragon in terms of initial attendance, but I expect it to drop-off more quickly. Although the movie is spaced out a full two months before the next animated feature, Alpha and Omega (Which looks terrible by the way), it will be facing competition in the family market quite soon. July 16th, the Sorcerer's Apprentice opens, and while I don't see it being gangbusters, it could hurt Despicable Me a little. Perhaps more worrisome is Ramona and Beezus on the 23rd, and then Cats and Dogs 2 on the 30th. By this time though, Despicable me should have made most of its money, so it will do all right, just not How to Train your Dragon numbers.
Predators
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50 million
On the opposite end of the marketing spectrum is Predators. Hardly anyone seems to know this is coming out and even fewer people care. It seems like it will appeal to the hard-core Predator fan-base, but outside of that I'm predicting a bomb. Even if it does okay its first weekend though, it will crash next weekend when Inception opens. This seems doomed, now all it can hope for is a strong life on DVD and the development of a cult following.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
4th of July Weekend Box Office Predictions
Next weekend Twilight: Eclipse opens and will doubtless dominate the box office, the real question is how high it will fly, and whether fellow opener "The Last Airbender" will stand up tall beneath the behemoth, a la "Day After Tommorow" in 2004, or crash and burn a la...Jonah Hex. Let's see what I think.
Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000
Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.
The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000
The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.
Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000
Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.
The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000
The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
More Box Office Predictions...and Why I didn't predict last week
So last week before the weekend came up, predictions for the Karate Kid were in the $20-$30 range. I had planned to predict in the $50-$60, considering all the buzz I've seen from it, not online but from, you know, real people. After seeing the "professional" predictions however, my self-esteem was shattered, and I thought, "I really must know nothing about the box office business" and decided not to do a predictions post. Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have stayed true. No one was predicting Karate Kid to do as well as I said, but it turns out I was right and they were wrong. I just wish now that I would have said I was right, as now no one will believe me anyway.
There is a silver lining though, as I was going to predict A-Team in the $30-$40 range, but it underperformed. Still, that's where most people were predicting, so I would have been okay on that level.
Moving on, let's look at next week, and this time I won't back down.
Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend Prediction: $120-125 million
Predicted Total Gross: $400 million +
This week I'm predicting much of what helped the Karate Kid, on a much larger scale. Where do I begin? 1. This is the animated event picture of the summer, after Shrek 4 disappointed, this is going to clean up in a big way. 2. All the kids who grew up with Toy Story are going. This is now a full two generations of kids. 3. Everyone seems extremely positive towards this film. I'm convinced that even the most hardcore "Godfather" fan, is secretly going to see this, and the critics will be positive even if it sucks. Look out Karate Kid, you're about to get pwned.
Jonah Hex
Opening Weekend Prediction: $10-20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50-60 million
Can you say, bad buzz? Fans of the comic books show about as much interest as the rest of us in this movie, and that's a bad sign. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone excited about this film. While counter-programming Toy Story 3 seems like a good move, I think it will ultimately back-fire since Toy Story 3 will have extremely broad appeal. Maybe Jonah will find some life on DVD, but in the theaters I'm not expecting much at all.
There is a silver lining though, as I was going to predict A-Team in the $30-$40 range, but it underperformed. Still, that's where most people were predicting, so I would have been okay on that level.
Moving on, let's look at next week, and this time I won't back down.
Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend Prediction: $120-125 million
Predicted Total Gross: $400 million +
This week I'm predicting much of what helped the Karate Kid, on a much larger scale. Where do I begin? 1. This is the animated event picture of the summer, after Shrek 4 disappointed, this is going to clean up in a big way. 2. All the kids who grew up with Toy Story are going. This is now a full two generations of kids. 3. Everyone seems extremely positive towards this film. I'm convinced that even the most hardcore "Godfather" fan, is secretly going to see this, and the critics will be positive even if it sucks. Look out Karate Kid, you're about to get pwned.
Jonah Hex
Opening Weekend Prediction: $10-20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50-60 million
Can you say, bad buzz? Fans of the comic books show about as much interest as the rest of us in this movie, and that's a bad sign. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone excited about this film. While counter-programming Toy Story 3 seems like a good move, I think it will ultimately back-fire since Toy Story 3 will have extremely broad appeal. Maybe Jonah will find some life on DVD, but in the theaters I'm not expecting much at all.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Bogus Box-Office Bumblings
So far this summer the money aspect of film has been...disappointing.
Iron Man 2 shattered no records.
Robin Hood didn't have any heroics.
Shrek 4 dropped steeply from the last film.
And now, Sex in the City 2 and Prince of Persia both underperformed.
What's in store for June? Can the picture business bounce back? Let's take a look.
June 4
Marmaduke
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$30 mil.
Predicted Total Gross: $80-$90 mil.
It looks awful, but this sort of thing has done well lately. Alvin & the Chipmunks, G-Force and Beverly Hills Chihuaha are recent examples of this. Moving on.
Killers
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $60-75 mil
This could suffer, due to the recent Bounty Hunter which is in similar territory, as well as the later-in-the-month appearance of Knight & Day. It will probably find modest success, with breakout potential for much more, largely based on Ashton Kutcher's bankabillity with the younger crowd.
Get him to the Greek
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $70-$90 mil
Judd Apatow is an interesting animal from a box office perspective. He's topped $100 million a few times, but most of his stuff is more mid-range, and he had 1 bomb (Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story). This will probably do fairly well.
Splice
Predicted Opening Weekend: $12-$14 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $35-$40 mil
Foreign Horror does better with critics than American stuff, but audiences and critics rarely line-up. I'm predicting solid returns, but on such a busy weekend, something's gotta bomb, and it may well be Splice.
Note: As stated earlier, something's gotta bomb. I predict that at least one of my predictions is vastly overstating actual business, and something will be a surprise failure on this weekend.
Come back next week for more.
Iron Man 2 shattered no records.
Robin Hood didn't have any heroics.
Shrek 4 dropped steeply from the last film.
And now, Sex in the City 2 and Prince of Persia both underperformed.
What's in store for June? Can the picture business bounce back? Let's take a look.
June 4
Marmaduke
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$30 mil.
Predicted Total Gross: $80-$90 mil.
It looks awful, but this sort of thing has done well lately. Alvin & the Chipmunks, G-Force and Beverly Hills Chihuaha are recent examples of this. Moving on.
Killers
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $60-75 mil
This could suffer, due to the recent Bounty Hunter which is in similar territory, as well as the later-in-the-month appearance of Knight & Day. It will probably find modest success, with breakout potential for much more, largely based on Ashton Kutcher's bankabillity with the younger crowd.
Get him to the Greek
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $70-$90 mil
Judd Apatow is an interesting animal from a box office perspective. He's topped $100 million a few times, but most of his stuff is more mid-range, and he had 1 bomb (Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story). This will probably do fairly well.
Splice
Predicted Opening Weekend: $12-$14 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $35-$40 mil
Foreign Horror does better with critics than American stuff, but audiences and critics rarely line-up. I'm predicting solid returns, but on such a busy weekend, something's gotta bomb, and it may well be Splice.
Note: As stated earlier, something's gotta bomb. I predict that at least one of my predictions is vastly overstating actual business, and something will be a surprise failure on this weekend.
Come back next week for more.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)