Wow, I'm not that good at these things. I over-estimated Super 8 and to a lesser extend X-Men fisrt class, and underestimated Green Lantern. Cars 2 was always up in the air for me. Transformers is already done, so let's get to the real July releases.
July 8
Zookeeper (aka, Rewarmed Turd in the Microwave)
Opening Prediction: $30-35 million
Final Gross Prediction: $120-135 million.
The less said about this the better. It looks like crap obviously, but it will have to work hard not to make at least a little money. I hope it's the next marmaduke, but it's more likely gonna be a poor-man's night at the museum.
Horrible Bosses
Opening Prediction: $20-30 million
Final Gross Prediction: $100 million tops.
I don't see this taking off, it sounded promising at first but the marketing is confused and confusing. It'll be lucky to get above $25 million opening, which basically ensures it won't be a true break-out hit, although if word of mouth is good it could stick around.
July 15
Harry Potter and the Warner Bros need more Money (Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Opening Prediction: $135-$160 million
Final Gross Prediction: $320 million+
After Transformers 3 hit a relatively meh note (considering how spectacular Revenge of the Fallen's five day sprint was) it is now basically a fact that Deathly Hallows Part 2 will be the year's top film. The question is, just how well will it do? The answer is, insanely well. This is the first movie that feels like it has a real shot of breaking the Dark Knight's opening record of $158 million. It's total gross will obviously trail that by a lot, but it should eclipse the first Harry Potter (I'm expecting a bit of Revenge of the Sith type comeback here). Of course in terms of attendance, it won't come close, but I wouldn't put a $350 million total past it. Unlike the previous few potter's, this one seems to have some real re-watchability, and should see more repeat business (especially if it's, you know, good). Sky's really the limit on this one.
I'm tired. I will update this later.
Monday, July 4, 2011
But, it did really well overseas!
I knew it would happen, and now it has. The US is still the biggest market for films in the world, but it's becoming less and less significant.
Perhaps the best way to show this is a look at the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.
2003-Pirates of the Caribbean: Domestic-$305 million, Overseas-$348 million,
Worldwide-$654 million
2006-Dead Man's Chest: Domestic-$423 million, Overseas-$643 million,
Worldwide-$1,066 million
2007-At World's End: Domestic-$309 million, Overseas-$654 million,
Worldwide-$963 million.
So, despite a mildly disappointing run domestically, At World's End made more overseas than the previous two pictures, not only that, but it's overseas tally was equal to the worldwide tally of the first film. This shows a great growth in the overseas market, but that's only the beginning.
2011-On Stranger Tides: Domestic-$233 million (so far), Overseas: $774 million(!So far!),
Worldwide-$1,008 million.
On stranger tides could surpass the worldwide gross of Dead Man's Chest, despite a massive drop in domestic grosses. In fact, the domestic gross was almost irrelevant to it's success!
This has been a definite trend in the summer's films.
Thor: $178M domestic, $262M overseas, $440M Worldwide.
The Hangover Part II: $248M domestic, $300M overseas, $548M worldwide.
Kung Fu Panda 2: $157M domestic, $374M overseas, $531M worldwide
X-Men First Class: $139M domestic, $196M overseas, $334M worldwide
Transformers 3: $162M domestic, $210M overseas, $372M worldwide.
Seems pretty clear. You'll notice I exempted Bridesmaids (one of the biggest domestic hits of the year) Green Lantern, Super 8 and Cars 2. All of these films are taking a slow-roll-out approach and we probably won't have a good idea of where they'll end up worldwide until the end of the month, when they open in more territories. Super 8 seems the most likely to disappoint overseas, but it should still easily match it's domestic gross.
Perhaps the best way to show this is a look at the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.
2003-Pirates of the Caribbean: Domestic-$305 million, Overseas-$348 million,
Worldwide-$654 million
2006-Dead Man's Chest: Domestic-$423 million, Overseas-$643 million,
Worldwide-$1,066 million
2007-At World's End: Domestic-$309 million, Overseas-$654 million,
Worldwide-$963 million.
So, despite a mildly disappointing run domestically, At World's End made more overseas than the previous two pictures, not only that, but it's overseas tally was equal to the worldwide tally of the first film. This shows a great growth in the overseas market, but that's only the beginning.
2011-On Stranger Tides: Domestic-$233 million (so far), Overseas: $774 million(!So far!),
Worldwide-$1,008 million.
On stranger tides could surpass the worldwide gross of Dead Man's Chest, despite a massive drop in domestic grosses. In fact, the domestic gross was almost irrelevant to it's success!
This has been a definite trend in the summer's films.
Thor: $178M domestic, $262M overseas, $440M Worldwide.
The Hangover Part II: $248M domestic, $300M overseas, $548M worldwide.
Kung Fu Panda 2: $157M domestic, $374M overseas, $531M worldwide
X-Men First Class: $139M domestic, $196M overseas, $334M worldwide
Transformers 3: $162M domestic, $210M overseas, $372M worldwide.
Seems pretty clear. You'll notice I exempted Bridesmaids (one of the biggest domestic hits of the year) Green Lantern, Super 8 and Cars 2. All of these films are taking a slow-roll-out approach and we probably won't have a good idea of where they'll end up worldwide until the end of the month, when they open in more territories. Super 8 seems the most likely to disappoint overseas, but it should still easily match it's domestic gross.
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