Monday, June 20, 2011
Random Thoughts on Random Things
Cut the rope is a super addictive iPhone game! She & Him Volume 2 is amazing! Weird Al's Alpocalypse Drops Tommorow! True Grit on Blu-Ray! Demetri Martin's This is a Book is fantastic! xxxholic 16! One Stop Anime is closed on Sunday! Death the Kid is the coolest Soul Eater character! Tuesdays are more interesting than mondays! Freeze Pops FTW! Warcraft III holds up even after 9 years! Green Lantern did better than I expected! Super 8 and X-Men did worse than I expected! Thank You NOTES! Corpse Bride Piano Pieces! iPhone notes are useful! Swimming! Modified tube socks=bandit hats! My headphones broke so I'm using a headset! Drawing! Did nothing all day! Laderhosen! Alpine Seahorse! ALKRHOIEHCKHSDTLIHLGSHVDCMETUA"DD:FOSD:FODSFHNCD!
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
June Preview
So, June is kind of a weird month. In may the studios bring out there brightest and best to kick-start the summer. July offers massive blockbusters to keep things afloat through August. June is sort of a waiting period between them...especially this year.
This time, I'll be comparing this June's releases and commenting on how things could turn out.
June 3
X-Men First Class
Predicted Opening: $70-80 Million
Predicted Final Gross: $175-210 million
June at least starts with a bang, with some worthy holdovers and an undoubtedly big debut. The last entry in the X-Men series, Wolverine, pulled $85 million opening weekend, but bled out quickly with a $179 million final tally. I don't think First Class will be able to pull that, since the TERRIBLE and redundant badger Wolverine is still fresh in people's minds. But if Thor can pull $66 million, than First Class should grab at least $70 up front, and almost certainly more than Wolverine by the end of its run. Last year we had Killers and Get him to the Greek, both major disappointments, and a weak set of Memorial day holdovers. I fully expect First Class alone will outgross the top four, and the rest is just gravy. This weekend will soar over the comparable weekend last year, when Shrek 4 led in its third weekend with just $25.5 million...it certainly couldn't be any worse, the top 5 held only $85.2 million.
June 10
Super 8
Predicted Opening Weekend: $55-65 Million
Predicted Total Gross: Not even gonna guess.
This one is tough to call. Super 8 could really take off, or it could be a non-starter. The real test though, will be how long it sticks around. If it's just another cloverfield, it will stop short of $150 million. If it's the new ET, it will soar past $200 million. Anyway though, I can't imagine a start of less than $50 mil, or above $65 mil. It will probably top last year's Karate Kid remake, and beat out X-Men for the #1 slot, but that's about all I can say. The other new opener is Judy Moody and the not bummer summer. Who cares? Overall, this weekend will again beat last year. With X-Men, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda as holdovers and super 8 as top opener, it will easily fly past $115.1 million top 5 gross, when Karate Kid and A-Team opened on top.
June 17
Green Lantern
Predicted Opening Weekend: $30-40 million
Predicted total Gross: $75-90 million
No one wants to see this movie. No one except comic book fans. And they will see it. But only once. Because it will suck. Everyone knows this. And that's why they won't see it.
Mr. Popper's Penguins
Predicted Opening Weekend: $18-23 million
Predicted Total Gross: $60-80 million
See above but replace comic book fans with families. This looks terrible, but it probably won't bomb outright. Any way this shakes out though, it will be tough for the top 5 to top last year's $166.3 million, when Toy Story 3 (yes Toy Story 3) opened to $110 million. Oops.
June 24
Cars 2
Predicted Opening Gross: $60-70 Million
Predicted Total Gross: $220-240 million
Last year Pixar had it's biggest movie ever (Toy Story 3, although Nemo is still they're #1 in attendance). This year...well they won't. Cars 2 will pull families and only families. Pretty much everyone over age 10 was lukewarm or downright hostile to the original, but the toys are so ubiquitous that the kiddies will have to see it. Probably twice. Still, no matter what I don't see it beating the original's total gross, and certainly not the original's attendance. Even so, it will be one of June's biggest hits.
Bad Teacher
No predictions.
Cameron Diaz new movie comes out on the same weekend as Knight and Day did last year. Bad omen? you bet.
Overall, this weekend should again trail last year's comparable weekend, at least as far as the top 5 is concerned. Last year the top 5 took $141.6 million last year. Don't count on it this year.
This time, I'll be comparing this June's releases and commenting on how things could turn out.
June 3
X-Men First Class
Predicted Opening: $70-80 Million
Predicted Final Gross: $175-210 million
June at least starts with a bang, with some worthy holdovers and an undoubtedly big debut. The last entry in the X-Men series, Wolverine, pulled $85 million opening weekend, but bled out quickly with a $179 million final tally. I don't think First Class will be able to pull that, since the TERRIBLE and redundant badger Wolverine is still fresh in people's minds. But if Thor can pull $66 million, than First Class should grab at least $70 up front, and almost certainly more than Wolverine by the end of its run. Last year we had Killers and Get him to the Greek, both major disappointments, and a weak set of Memorial day holdovers. I fully expect First Class alone will outgross the top four, and the rest is just gravy. This weekend will soar over the comparable weekend last year, when Shrek 4 led in its third weekend with just $25.5 million...it certainly couldn't be any worse, the top 5 held only $85.2 million.
June 10
Super 8
Predicted Opening Weekend: $55-65 Million
Predicted Total Gross: Not even gonna guess.
This one is tough to call. Super 8 could really take off, or it could be a non-starter. The real test though, will be how long it sticks around. If it's just another cloverfield, it will stop short of $150 million. If it's the new ET, it will soar past $200 million. Anyway though, I can't imagine a start of less than $50 mil, or above $65 mil. It will probably top last year's Karate Kid remake, and beat out X-Men for the #1 slot, but that's about all I can say. The other new opener is Judy Moody and the not bummer summer. Who cares? Overall, this weekend will again beat last year. With X-Men, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda as holdovers and super 8 as top opener, it will easily fly past $115.1 million top 5 gross, when Karate Kid and A-Team opened on top.
June 17
Green Lantern
Predicted Opening Weekend: $30-40 million
Predicted total Gross: $75-90 million
No one wants to see this movie. No one except comic book fans. And they will see it. But only once. Because it will suck. Everyone knows this. And that's why they won't see it.
Mr. Popper's Penguins
Predicted Opening Weekend: $18-23 million
Predicted Total Gross: $60-80 million
See above but replace comic book fans with families. This looks terrible, but it probably won't bomb outright. Any way this shakes out though, it will be tough for the top 5 to top last year's $166.3 million, when Toy Story 3 (yes Toy Story 3) opened to $110 million. Oops.
June 24
Cars 2
Predicted Opening Gross: $60-70 Million
Predicted Total Gross: $220-240 million
Last year Pixar had it's biggest movie ever (Toy Story 3, although Nemo is still they're #1 in attendance). This year...well they won't. Cars 2 will pull families and only families. Pretty much everyone over age 10 was lukewarm or downright hostile to the original, but the toys are so ubiquitous that the kiddies will have to see it. Probably twice. Still, no matter what I don't see it beating the original's total gross, and certainly not the original's attendance. Even so, it will be one of June's biggest hits.
Bad Teacher
No predictions.
Cameron Diaz new movie comes out on the same weekend as Knight and Day did last year. Bad omen? you bet.
Overall, this weekend should again trail last year's comparable weekend, at least as far as the top 5 is concerned. Last year the top 5 took $141.6 million last year. Don't count on it this year.
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