Cliff-hangers, Sequel-baiting and closed ends.

In all the speculation that goes on in the internet, one thing is agreed upon. Hollywood loves sequels. Just last year, there were 17 sequels, not to mention 2 spin-offs and 9 remakes/reboots.

Furthermore, 7 of the top 10 films in 2009, will have sequels.

However, one must always question whether or not a film needs a sequel, in most cases they don't. But some films are set up to have sequels, either ending with a cliff-hanger or sequel-bait. Then there are also films that literally cannot have sequels, Citizen Kane, Lawrence of Arabia, Hamlet.

So what's the difference between sequel-bait and cliffhangers? Very good question.

The first film in a series rarely ends on a cliffhanger. The only films I can think of are Eragon and Push, neither of which ended up getting sequels. A cliffhanger ends in such a way that without a sequel you aren't getting a complete story. Sequel bait, is when the film-makers establish possible plot elements for sequels within the film, usually at the end. Examples of this are, Star Wars, Spider-Man, Back to the Future, Iron Man, Batman Begins, Toy Story (yes, Toy Story, watch it again), Transformers, Hoodwinked, Underworld, The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe, and Alien. While sequel bait can work without ever getting a sequel, (See The Incredibles) a cliffhanger ruins the enjoyment of the film. Thus, cliffhangers are much better at the end of the second film, especially if the third film is already in production. Examples of this include, The Empire Strikes Back, The Matrix Reloaded, and Pirates of the Caribbean 2.

In conclusion, here are my most anticipated sequels.

Untitled Third Batman Film (TBA)
Iron Man 2 (May 7, 2010)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (June 3, 2011)
Hoodwinked 2 (TBA 2010, it's complicated)
Zombieland 2 (TBA)
District 10 (TBA, starts shooting in October)
The Hobbit (May or may not ever come out)
Harry Potter 7 (Nov 19, 2010)
Get Smart 2 (TBA)

What we in the industry refer to as, Legs.

Back in the day, films would remain in theaters for several months, showing small drops or gains from week to week, slowly raising their tally to blockbuster numbers. Today, the opening weekend is everything for big films, and only overwhelmingly good word-of-mouth can keep a movie going after a lack-luster start.

Looking back to 1980, the top five films were:

The Empire Strikes Back-$210,000,000, 5.2% from opening weekend.
9 to 5-$103,000,000, 3.8% from opening weekend.
Stir Crazy-$101,000,000, 8.6%, from opening weekend.
Airplane!-$83,000,000, (opening unknown)
Any Which way you Can-$71,000,000, 11.4% from opening weekend.

Now lets look at 2009:

Avatar-$745,000,000, 10.3% from opening weekend
Transformers 2-$402,000,000, 27.1% from opening weekend
Harry Potter 6-$302,000,000, 25.8% from opening weekend
New Moon-$297,000,000, 48.2% from opening weekend
Up-$293,000,000, 23.2% from opening weekend

2009 is probably not the best example of this trend however, as Avatar had shocking longevity, and a holiday release, which always marginalizes the opening weekend. Transformers 2 had a five day opening, meaning the opening day is not included in the opening weekend. Harry Potter 6, also had a five day opening.

These days, films with significant legs are a real rarity. One such film is "How to Train Your Dragon". After superior word of mouth (98% on rotten tomatoes) the movie has maintained a steady stream of cash since its somewhat tepid premiere ($43,000,000), and managed to take #1 this weekend. This is an extremely rare case of a film retaking #1 after falling out, something that hasn't happened in a very long time, perhaps ever for a film in its fourth weekend. It now totals $159,000,000, and will probably cross $200 million by the end of its run.

By comparison, Transformers 2 earned $200 million in its five day opening and struggled to get over the $400 million mark. Word of mouth really does help a film.

The Weinstein Co.

On April 3rd, Kanbar Animation (creators of Hoodwinked) sued The Weinstein Co for breach of contract in failing to release the sequel, Hoodwinked 2. Why has Hoodwinked 2 not yet been released? Why is the film completed, and yet no images or trailers have been released? I don't know, but the Weinsteins are certainly in trouble. Here's a list of there films, and whether they bombed, flopped, succeeded, or were a break-out hit. This has been determined by myself, based on knowledge I've gathered, I don't know the actual profit numbers.

Bomb=No way it made money, even with DVD
Flop=Probably lost money, but might have made some on DVD
Success=Made a little money, and probably a lot more on DVD
Hit=Made a large amount of money, before DVD is even figured.

Derailed (2005)-Success
The Libertine (2005)-Flop
Transamerica (2005)-Success
Hoodwinked (2005, Premiere, 2006 Release)-Hit
Mrs Henderson Presents (2005)-Success
The Matador (2005)-Flop
Wolf Creek (2005)-Success
Miss Potter (2006)-Success
Scary Movie 4 (2006)-Hit
Stormbreaker (2006)-Flop
Doogal (2006)-Bomb
Clerks 2 (2006)-Hit
Wordplay (2006)-Bomb
Pulse (2006)-Flop
Shut up & Sing (2006)-Flop
Lassie (2006)-Bomb
School for Scoundrels (2006)-Bomb
Hannibal Rising (2007)-Hit
Grindhouse (2007)-Bomb
The Hunting Party (2007)-Bomb
1408 (2007)-Hit
Dedication (2007)-Bomb
Who's your Caddy (2007)-Bomb
Cassandra's Dream (2007)-Flop
The Mist (2007)-Success
Halloween (2007)-Success
Rogue (2008)-Bomb
Zach & Miri Make a Porno (2008)-Flop
The Reader (2008)-Hit
The Promotion (2008)-Bomb
Capitalism (2009)-Success
Fanboys (2009)-Bomb
Outlander (2009)-Bomb
Halloween 2 (2009)-Success
Janky Promoters (2009)-Bomb
Inglorious Basterds (2009)-Mega Hit
The Road (2009)-Flop
A Single Man (2009)-Success
Nine (2009)-Bomb
Youth in Revolt (2010)-Flop

A very mixed history, seven hits, ten successes, fourteen flops and fourteen bombs. Certainly tilted to the bomby side, explaining there financial troubles. :(

2006: The Year of Animated Glut

Animated films went through a boom in the mid 00's. While previously, one or two, or even no animated films would be released per year, in the 00's almost every year at least 10 animated films invaded cinemas. The most prolific year, was 2006. With twenty animated films released. Twenty. This number does not include straight to DVD films, or films not released in the US. Only for movies released in theaters in the US in 2006. For comparison, here are the surrounding years.

2005-11
2006-20
2007-14
2008-18
2009-15

Furthermoe, all but five of these films entered wide release, leading to an extremely saturated market. Comparitively, 2009 had 12 wide release animated films. For posterity's sake, here are the animated films of 2006, from lowest grossing to highest grossing.

1. Live Freaky Die Freaky (Stop-Motion)-$11,290-1/27-Wellspring
2. Renaissance-$70,644-9/22-Miramax
3. Captain Sabretooth-$20,256-9/22-Indic.
4. Romeo & Juliet: Sealed with a Kiss-$463,002-10/26-Indic.
5. A Scanner Darkly (Rotoscope)-$5,501,616-7/7-WIP
6. Doogal (CG)-$7,417,319-2/24-Weinstein Company
7. Everyone's Hero (CG)-$14,523,101-9/15-Fox
8. Arthur and the Invisibles (CG/Live Action)-$15,132,763-12/29-MGM
9. The Ant Bully (CG)-$28,142,535-7/28-WB
10. The Wild (CG)-$37,384,046-4/14-BV (Disney)
11. Hoodwinked (CG)-$51,386,611-1/13-Weinstein Company
12. Curious George-$58,360,760-2/10-Universal
13. Flushed Away (Claymation)-$64,665,672-11/3-Dreamworks (Ardman)
14. Barnyard (CG)-$72,637,803-8/4-Paramount
15. Monster House (MC CG)-$73,661,010-7/21-Sony
16. Open Season (CG)-$85,105,259-9/29-Sony
17. Over the Hedge (CG)-$155,019,340-5/19-Dreamworks
18. Ice Age 2 (CG)-$195,330,621-3/27-Fox
19. Happy Feat (CG)-$198,000,317-11/17-WB
20. Cars (CG)-$244,082,982-6/9-Pixar

How to Train your-Awesome!

Just got back from seeing "How to Train your Dragon" and, yes it was, awesome.

Sometimes movies impress you, and sometimes they let you down. Sometimes they destroy any doubts you ever had, and give you a masterpiece of a film. That's what happened here. I enjoyed every minute of How to Train your Dragon, and that's saying a lot coming from me. Go see it. NOW!