Thursday, July 8, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions July 9-11

Despicable Me
Predicted Opening: $45 million
Predicted Final Gross: $150 million

Despicable Me has done a great job of raising awareness. For the past three or four months ads for the thing have been non-stop. This may end up turning people off of the film, but I doubt it as most of the ads are quite appealing (well, the first time you see them). I imagine this will come in mid-range for animation, below Pixar, but well within Dreamwork's range. It should be somewhere around How to Train your Dragon in terms of initial attendance, but I expect it to drop-off more quickly. Although the movie is spaced out a full two months before the next animated feature, Alpha and Omega (Which looks terrible by the way), it will be facing competition in the family market quite soon. July 16th, the Sorcerer's Apprentice opens, and while I don't see it being gangbusters, it could hurt Despicable Me a little. Perhaps more worrisome is Ramona and Beezus on the 23rd, and then Cats and Dogs 2 on the 30th. By this time though, Despicable me should have made most of its money, so it will do all right, just not How to Train your Dragon numbers.

Predators
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50 million

On the opposite end of the marketing spectrum is Predators. Hardly anyone seems to know this is coming out and even fewer people care. It seems like it will appeal to the hard-core Predator fan-base, but outside of that I'm predicting a bomb. Even if it does okay its first weekend though, it will crash next weekend when Inception opens. This seems doomed, now all it can hope for is a strong life on DVD and the development of a cult following.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

The Last Airbender

Well, I finally went to see the Last Airbender yesterday...and it took me a while to figure out how I felt about it. I went in expecting total garbage, which the reviews pointed towards...That wasn't quite what I found. The acting was bad, the camera work was uninspired, the action was dull...but it was a coherent story with some great (albeit wasted) special effects. So it wasn't all that bad. I was literally going between a thumbs up and a thumbs down. But then I realized I was thinking of the film in terms of what wasn't bad, not in terms of what was good. There really was nothing about this film that was really good. Thus I have to give it a thumbs down, for horribly wasted potential. And to top it all off, the ending is a total Eragon, hinting at a sequel that will likely never get made (despite a strong first weekend showing for the film). M. Night Shyamalan is getting the blame for the film's quality, and so he should, not because he isn't talented (Heck, I even liked Lady in the Water) but because he just doesn't seem to care. He clearly picked this film to re-invent himself and pull in strong box office. However, it's clear his heart isn't in it and it just comes across as lazy.
As bad as the acting is, there are a few decent performances (or else they just look that way next to the other horrible actors). Dev Patel of Slumdog Millionaire turns in a serviceable, but one-note performance. But a total lack of characterization is what kills this movie. Honestly, it is too short, coming in at just over 100 minutes. Consider it was based on the first season of the tv series, which is over 400 minutes. Even so, parts of the film seem like they could have been cut out, and others desperately need expanded. Ultimately, this is a mess. You might have a little fun with it, and it's not "indescribably bad" as one critic stated, but it really is just a movie with great potential, squandered by lazy film-makers. 1.5 stars out of 4.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Breaking Even in Film

It's a generally understood fact in Hollywood, that to make money on a film you have to surpass the budget. Usually, if the worldwide gross is twice the film's budget, it is considered to have broken even, and is typically considered successful, considering the money that will be made on DVD. Why double? Due to marketing costs, and the fact that about 50% of the gross actually goes back to the studios. Considering that, even films considered successful often don't make money until the DVD comes out. I consider breaking even the most important thing for a film to achieve, so I'm going to list the films this summer that have done so, and in future posts I may include more of them...just cuz I wanted to. Note: While production budgets are readily available, marketing costs are usually kept under wraps, so that part will be conjecture on my part. Usually there's one wide release every week that manages to actually make money.

Iron Man 2
Production Budget: $200 million
Domestic Gross: $308 million
Overseas: $303 million
Worldwide: $611 million

Even when marketing is taken into account, you can't deny that this movie made money. Despite a weaker overall performance domestically, this has surpassed the first film worldwide.

Letters to Juliet
Production Budget: $30 million
Domestic Gross: $51 million
Overseas: $8.9 million
Worldwide: $59.9 million

Okay, this technically has not broken even, but it will within a few days, and then some once the overseas market kicks in (it has yet to be released in most markets). This is a good example though of how difficult it is to break even on a film, even with a modest budget. Taking into account marketing costs, this movie probably won't make money till the DVD comes out, but I think the studio was counting on that.

Shrek Forever After
Production Budget: $165 million
Domestic: $233 million
Overseas: $137 million
Worldwide: $370 million

Despite performing far below the other Shrek films, (although it has better legs than Shrek 3) Shrek 4 has managed to more than break even, and is still just getting started on the foreign side of things. With marketing, it still has a ways to go but will probably make it by the time all the foreign markets are tallied.

Sex and the City 2
Production Budget: $100 million
Domestic: $93 million
Overseas: $172 million
Worldwide: $265 million

Another movie that did below expectations domestically, Sex and the City 2 has managed to make money, despite a bloated budget and horrible reviews. The DVD will have to recoup most of the marketing costs, but (sadly) a third film is not entirely out of the equation...blech.

The Karate Kid
Production Budget: $40 million
Domestic: $155 million
Overseas: $24 million
Worldwide: $179 million

A run away success, which I predicted. No matter how much was spent on marketing the studios have made a boatload of cash on this picture, and it will only increase, since it has yet to launch in many major overseas markets, and is still playing strongly here in the US.

Toy Story 3
Production Budget: $200 million
Domestic: $301 million
Overseas: $151 million
Worldwide: $452 million

Who didn't expect this? Even with a $200 million budget to conquer, this is one of the most recent films to make it's money back. It's still playing strongly here, and has yet to launch in many places overseas. When all is said and done on the box office side, this will probably be the highest grossing film of the summer. Almost certainly.

Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Production Budget: $65 million
Domestic: $175 million
Foreign: $100 million
Worldwide: $275 million

After only six days of release, Eclipse is one of the most profitable films of the year, having made more than 4 times its budget back. In the end its profits will be unimaginable, proving that a big budget is almost always a hindrance more than a help. Take notes Hollywood, and you can all make money. (preferably however, have better stories than Twilight, my point is special effects and big names do not box office make)

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Searching for Meaning (Grasping at Straws)...in Toy Story 3.

People certainly know how to find whatever they're looking for wherever they want to. I don't really have much to say except...geez people. Read on. Warning: If for some reason you still haven't seen Toy Story 3 (acceptable reasons: You have cancer, are trapped under a pile of semi-trucks or are being held captive by terrorists) there are spoilers ahead. Abandon all hope those who enter here...and all reason.


"Andy is seventeen and about to leave for college. These toys are left behind, just as host nations left behind the Jews as the Third Reich conquered Europe.

Woody holds a meeting, where the assembled toy family discusses possible outcomes for their new position in the world. Change a few words and it is the same exact scene at the train station from Roman Polanski's award winning Holocaust drama "The Pianist."

"No, we won't just be abandoned. Surely we can be useful to them somehow. Yes, we've lost friends (Bo Peep), but surely that can't happen to us." Buzz Lightyear stands forward and suggests sanctuary IN AN ATTIC. Are you kidding me?

The cattle car comes for the toys in the form of a horrible garbage bag - but they don't go straight to extermination. They find themselves alive and at Sunnyside where they are put "to work."

Once there, they meet the toy version of Sonderkommando, toys who live the stay fed and well-sheltered (like Ken in his dream house) while leading other toys to a certain death. Newcomers are bashed and abused in the "Caterpillar Room" by non-age appropriate children until they resemble Muselmann and are eventually thrown into the trash chute.

The trash chute leads to a systematic sorting of metal (e.g. any last valuables) until, eventually, the fiery crematoria.

Our heroes get saved at the last minute, of course, and they find themselves a new homeland. It is a place where many of their kind already live and have an established foothold, and it would appear that security, finally, is at hand if they are vigilant." -UGO.com

Well, was the Holocaust metaphor too much for you? Maybe twisting a few things there? Brace yourself.

"Simply incredible. I'm 18 and going off to college soon. I couldnt help but notice this movie is pure symbolism. From the begining I could tell that it was meant to stand out against our soon to be materialist postmodern culture.The parallels this movie displays with Christian theology are ingenious. Andy's departure to college was meant to catch the attention of the generation who grew up watching the toy story movies, we are now also going away to college.

But this whole movie is a metaphor for the present and the future of Christians, try to follow me on this thought. Andy represents Jesus/Christianity. The toys have an interesting choice from the very begining, follow Andy, or give in and follow the easier path that leads to uncertainty, but also a possible sense of freedom (follow christianity/Jesus, or take the easy materialist approach to life).

Interestingly enough one toy says "we can become masters of our own destiny", This represents the antibiblical worldview that is recently in full bloom which questions tradition, authority,and the moral absolutes rooted in the Christian religion. The outcome that corresponds to their actions leads them to a place that seems dream like at first, but proves to be no more than a deception. I dont want to spoil any more but see if you also find some type of metophor that ultimately leads them to "heaven" from their decision to follow Andy. Hint: the rapture is included" - Chistiananswers.net, viewer comments section.

What's next? Apartheid? Global warming? Cloning? Stem-cell research? Or maybe it's just a good story and doesn't stand for anything. Ever think of that?

In conclusion, people are idiots and go see Toy Story 3.

Monday, June 28, 2010

4th of July Weekend Box Office Predictions

Next weekend Twilight: Eclipse opens and will doubtless dominate the box office, the real question is how high it will fly, and whether fellow opener "The Last Airbender" will stand up tall beneath the behemoth, a la "Day After Tommorow" in 2004, or crash and burn a la...Jonah Hex. Let's see what I think.

Twilight Eclipse
Opening Size: 4000+ theaters, probably upwards of 7,000 screens
Budget: $65,000,000
Predicted Opening (from June 30-July 4): $165,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $330,000,000

Yes, I'm predicting it will fly just as high/higher than the last picture. The major difference here is Eclipse's opening on a Wednesday for a 5-day independence day opening, while New Moon opened on the Friday before thanksgiving. New Moon hit brought in nearly $73 million the first day, that's a record. However, for the weekend it came out to $142 million, less than double the opening day. I think Eclipse will hit a similar pattern, upwards of $70 million on Wednesday, with $30-40 for Thursday, $30-40 Friday, $30-40 Saturday and less than $30 Sunday, although with Sunday being independence day it might get a boost. 75+35+35+35+25...actually that comes to $205, which I can't imagine considering that would be the biggest 5-day gross of all time. Expect it to drop off much quicker off of the opening day...but still a ridiculously massive start.

The Last Airbender
Opening Size: 3000+ theaters, as many as 6,000 screens
Budget: $150,000,000
Predicted Opening (July 1-4): $60,000,000
Predicted Total Gross: $200,000,000

The Last Airbender is based on the Nickelodeon anime-like series, which has been very successful. It is directed by M Night Shyamalan, which I don't think will have much sway here one way or another. I think the property will either sell or it won't and Shyamalan may take credit, or blame, but he really won't affect it at all I don't think. I predict solid business, as it has generated a good amount of buzz for this type of picture, and may successfully counter-program Eclipse. All the teenage-tweenage girls will go see Twilight, which will drive the far-less interested male audience to other pictures. Airbender may just fit the bill. I expect the audience to skew heavily male, and also heavily under age 25. (whereas Eclipse will obviously skew female) Airbender, oddly enough opens the day after Eclipse, which I think was a very smart move. The multi-plexes will be overrun with Twilight fans the first day, but in following days it will be much slower for that picture. I think the weekend breakdown will also be more even for Airbender, with less focus on the opening day. But we'll see, won't we.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

More Box Office Predictions...and Why I didn't predict last week

So last week before the weekend came up, predictions for the Karate Kid were in the $20-$30 range. I had planned to predict in the $50-$60, considering all the buzz I've seen from it, not online but from, you know, real people. After seeing the "professional" predictions however, my self-esteem was shattered, and I thought, "I really must know nothing about the box office business" and decided not to do a predictions post. Hindsight is 20/20, but I should have stayed true. No one was predicting Karate Kid to do as well as I said, but it turns out I was right and they were wrong. I just wish now that I would have said I was right, as now no one will believe me anyway.

There is a silver lining though, as I was going to predict A-Team in the $30-$40 range, but it underperformed. Still, that's where most people were predicting, so I would have been okay on that level.

Moving on, let's look at next week, and this time I won't back down.

Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend Prediction: $120-125 million
Predicted Total Gross: $400 million +

This week I'm predicting much of what helped the Karate Kid, on a much larger scale. Where do I begin? 1. This is the animated event picture of the summer, after Shrek 4 disappointed, this is going to clean up in a big way. 2. All the kids who grew up with Toy Story are going. This is now a full two generations of kids. 3. Everyone seems extremely positive towards this film. I'm convinced that even the most hardcore "Godfather" fan, is secretly going to see this, and the critics will be positive even if it sucks. Look out Karate Kid, you're about to get pwned.

Jonah Hex
Opening Weekend Prediction: $10-20 million
Predicted Total Gross: $50-60 million

Can you say, bad buzz? Fans of the comic books show about as much interest as the rest of us in this movie, and that's a bad sign. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone excited about this film. While counter-programming Toy Story 3 seems like a good move, I think it will ultimately back-fire since Toy Story 3 will have extremely broad appeal. Maybe Jonah will find some life on DVD, but in the theaters I'm not expecting much at all.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Why Twilight is Genius

SHOCKING TITLE GET YOUR ATTENTION?

Good, now listen up, this is from a box office perspective, this is why Summit Entertainment studio heads are some of the smartest people alive.

Summit somehow acquired the rights to the enormously (and oddly) popular Twilight franchise for pittance. Since the books require little in the way of a massive budget, and Summit had little cash to spare, they churned out the first film for a mere $37 million. It went on to make $192 million domestically, and $216 million overseas. $408 million worldwide vs. $37 million budget. Dayang.

However, Summit realized the Twilight craze would soon fade, and managed to churn out a sequel in less than a year. Where most studios would double the first film's tiny budget, Summit kept cool, raising the budget only $13 million, to $50 million. New Moon handily broke the all-time opening day record, with $73 million dollars in the till after only 24 hours. It went on to make $297 million domestically and $413 million overseas. $709 million worldwide vs. $50 million budget. Shoot.

At this point even the most conservative studio execs would lose their restraint and green-light a production of $100 million plus. Twilight Saga: Eclipse comes out at the end of June, with a mere $65 million price-tag.

I salute you, Summit. But the real genius perhaps lies in the fact that the Twilight films require little money to make, and bring in the big bucks. Love it or hate it, Twilight is a phenomenon, and it will be gone soon, which is why the fourth film has recently been split into two, to make it last that much longer.