Bogus Box-Office Bumblings

So far this summer the money aspect of film has been...disappointing.

Iron Man 2 shattered no records.
Robin Hood didn't have any heroics.
Shrek 4 dropped steeply from the last film.
And now, Sex in the City 2 and Prince of Persia both underperformed.

What's in store for June? Can the picture business bounce back? Let's take a look.

June 4

Marmaduke
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$30 mil.
Predicted Total Gross: $80-$90 mil.

It looks awful, but this sort of thing has done well lately. Alvin & the Chipmunks, G-Force and Beverly Hills Chihuaha are recent examples of this. Moving on.

Killers
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $60-75 mil

This could suffer, due to the recent Bounty Hunter which is in similar territory, as well as the later-in-the-month appearance of Knight & Day. It will probably find modest success, with breakout potential for much more, largely based on Ashton Kutcher's bankabillity with the younger crowd.

Get him to the Greek
Predicted Opening Weekend: $20-$25 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $70-$90 mil

Judd Apatow is an interesting animal from a box office perspective. He's topped $100 million a few times, but most of his stuff is more mid-range, and he had 1 bomb (Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story). This will probably do fairly well.

Splice
Predicted Opening Weekend: $12-$14 mil
Predicted Total Gross: $35-$40 mil

Foreign Horror does better with critics than American stuff, but audiences and critics rarely line-up. I'm predicting solid returns, but on such a busy weekend, something's gotta bomb, and it may well be Splice.

Note: As stated earlier, something's gotta bomb. I predict that at least one of my predictions is vastly overstating actual business, and something will be a surprise failure on this weekend.

Come back next week for more.

Complex Math Equations=Movie Quality

1. Robin Hood (Altered Folklore) + Ridley Scott (Director: Gladiator, Braveheart) + Russel Crowe (Actor: A Beautiful Mind, Gladiator) = Robin Hood (Generic Film Fail)

Robin Hood (Folklore) - Fun (Attribute) = Robin Hood (Altered Folkore)
Ridley Scott = Ridley Scott
Ridley Scott + Robin Hood (Altered Foklore) = Robin Hood (Genius new Vision)
Robin Hood (Genius New Vision) + Studio Interference = Robin Hood (Generic Film)
Robin Hood (Generic Film) + Russel Crowe = Robin Hood (Generic Film Fail)

2. Sherlock Holmes (Series of Novels) + Guy Ritchie (Director: RocknRolla, Snatch) + Robert Downey Jr. = Sherlock Holmes (Fun Film Win)

Sherlock Holmes (Series of Novels) = Fail
Sherlock Holmes (Series of Novels) + Film Adaptation = Much Less Fail
Sherlock Holmes (Film Adaptation) + Guy Ritchie = Sherlock Holmes (Potential Great Film)
Sherlock Holmes (Character) + Robert Downey Jr = Sherlock Holmes (Potential Great Character)
Sherlock Holmes (Potential Great Film) + Sherlock Holmes (Potential Great Character) = Sherlock Holmes (Fun Film Win)

3. Iron Man (Original Film) + Don Cheadle + Scarlett Johanssen + Samuel L. Jackson + Sam Rockwell + Mickey Rourke + Gary Shandling - Terrence Howard - Origin + Boring Midsection = Iron Man 2 (Mediocre Film Meh)

Self explanatory.

Watch this, Not That: Summer Edition

The long-anticipated summer edition of what I so pompously wrote about in spring. Without further ado, watch this not that, summer edition.

Watch This

Iron Man 2 (May 7)
Directed by: Jon Favreau (Iron Man, Zathura, Elf)
Written by: Justin Theroux (Tropic Thunder)
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mickey Rourke, Scarlett Johansson, Don Cheadle, Sam Rockwell, Samuel L. Jackson, Paul Bettany

The surprise hit of 2008, making over $300 million domestically. I was determined to hate the first film, but I just couldn't do it, and I'm at least a little excited for the sequel, due out this Friday. All the major cast is solid, adding Scarlett Johansson (The Other Boleyn Girl, The Prestige), academy award nominee Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Sam Rockwell (Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Galaxy Quest), Samuel L. Jackson (Unbreakable, Pulp Fiction) and Don Cheadle (Ocean's 13, Traitor) to replace Terrence Howard. Of concern however, is the change in writers from Mark Fergus and Hawk Otsby (Children of Men), Art Marcum and Matt Holloway (Punisher: War Zone), to relative newcomer Justin Theroux (who appeared recently on NBC's "Parks & Recreation"). Also, early word of mouth is largely luke-warm, making this sound like another Spiderman 2 (or for people who liked Spiderman 2, insert Spiderman 3).

Trailer for Iron Man 2 (Even though I know you've already seen it)

The A-Team (June 11)
Directed by: Joe Carnahan (Smokin' Aces, Narc)
Written by: Brian Bloom, Michael Brandt (Wanted, 3:10 to Yuma), Skip Woods (Hitman, Swordfish)
Starring: Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, Jessica Biel, Sharlto Copley, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

Based on the infamously cheesy 80's TV show of the same name, this movie looks like it has potential for awesomeness. Then again, it might be a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions, but either way I recommend a watch. I haven't seen any of Joe Carnahan's work, but the critics seem to think it was mostly solid. The same goes for writer Michael Brandt, but Skip Woods has a less glowing resume. Liam Neeson is always fantastic, but the rest of the cast seems mediocre at best. The main reason this is on the "watch" list is due to a lack of better stuff out there in mid-June.

Trailer for The A-Team

Toy Story 3 (June 18)
Directed by: Lee Unkrich (Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc, Cars)
Written by: Michael Arndt (Litte Miss Sunshine)
Starring: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Joan Cusack, Michael Freaking Keaton, Bonnie Hunt, Wallace Shawn

I'm probably the biggest skeptic this film has, most everyone seems excited for it, but I'm not so sure. Lee Unkrich's last film Cars was a phenomenal disappointment for me, and the writers of the original Toy Stories aren't returning. Still, definitely going to see it and recommend that you do to. Plus, Michael Keaton is the man.

Toy Story 3: The Trailer

Despicable Me (July 9)
Directed by: Pierre Coffin (Gary's Fall), Chris Renaud (No time for Nuts)
Written by: Ken Daurio and Cinco Paul (Horton Hears a Who, College Road Trip)
Starring: Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Miranda Cosgrove, Jason Segel, Ken Jeong, Will Arnett, Julie Andrews, Russell Brand, Danny McBride

I love animated films. I really do. So even though it has two new-coming directors, writers of serviceable, but largely uninspired kids films and enough big-name stars to sink any treasure ship, let alone a film, I want to see this. To quote the trailer, "This is garbage! You like this stuff?" Yes, yes I do.

Despicable Me Trailer

Dinner for Shmucks (July 23)
Directed by: Jay Roach (Meet the Parents, Austin Powers)
Written by: Ken Daurio and Cinco Paul *Mentioned Above*
Starring: Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, Zach Galifianakis

Comedies are perhaps the hardest genre of film to market these days. Making a film stand out as a comedy is incredibly difficult, and there is really no known workable formula for success (unless you're talking Rom Com). Two tactics are big-name stars and an insanely original premise. Neither have a very good success rate. Dinner for Shmucks has both, and I think it looks darn funny. I haven't liked Jay Roach's previous work, it was all a bit too mean-spirited, and I think there may be more of that this time around. Ken Daurio and Cinco Paul don't inspire much confidence either. But I still think this is at least worth a look, queue the trailer.

Roll Film

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (August 10)
Directed by: Edgar Wright (Hot Fuzz, Shaun of the Dead)
Written by: Edgar Wright, Michael Bacall (Bookies, Maniac)
Starring: Michael Cera, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Chris Evans, Brandon Routh, Alison Pill

Scott Pilgrim looks like the kind of movie that will either be non-stop total win, or non-stop total fail. However, with Edgar Wright aboard (I've never seen his films, but others rave about them) it looks like win is the order of the day. Still, Michael Macall isn't the one he worked with on his best received films, and Michael Cera hasn't exactly shown diversity in his acting set. I remain open-minded, and will definitely give this one a chance.

Scott Pilgrim vs. The Trailer

Cliff-hangers, Sequel-baiting and closed ends.

In all the speculation that goes on in the internet, one thing is agreed upon. Hollywood loves sequels. Just last year, there were 17 sequels, not to mention 2 spin-offs and 9 remakes/reboots.

Furthermore, 7 of the top 10 films in 2009, will have sequels.

However, one must always question whether or not a film needs a sequel, in most cases they don't. But some films are set up to have sequels, either ending with a cliff-hanger or sequel-bait. Then there are also films that literally cannot have sequels, Citizen Kane, Lawrence of Arabia, Hamlet.

So what's the difference between sequel-bait and cliffhangers? Very good question.

The first film in a series rarely ends on a cliffhanger. The only films I can think of are Eragon and Push, neither of which ended up getting sequels. A cliffhanger ends in such a way that without a sequel you aren't getting a complete story. Sequel bait, is when the film-makers establish possible plot elements for sequels within the film, usually at the end. Examples of this are, Star Wars, Spider-Man, Back to the Future, Iron Man, Batman Begins, Toy Story (yes, Toy Story, watch it again), Transformers, Hoodwinked, Underworld, The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe, and Alien. While sequel bait can work without ever getting a sequel, (See The Incredibles) a cliffhanger ruins the enjoyment of the film. Thus, cliffhangers are much better at the end of the second film, especially if the third film is already in production. Examples of this include, The Empire Strikes Back, The Matrix Reloaded, and Pirates of the Caribbean 2.

In conclusion, here are my most anticipated sequels.

Untitled Third Batman Film (TBA)
Iron Man 2 (May 7, 2010)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (June 3, 2011)
Hoodwinked 2 (TBA 2010, it's complicated)
Zombieland 2 (TBA)
District 10 (TBA, starts shooting in October)
The Hobbit (May or may not ever come out)
Harry Potter 7 (Nov 19, 2010)
Get Smart 2 (TBA)

What we in the industry refer to as, Legs.

Back in the day, films would remain in theaters for several months, showing small drops or gains from week to week, slowly raising their tally to blockbuster numbers. Today, the opening weekend is everything for big films, and only overwhelmingly good word-of-mouth can keep a movie going after a lack-luster start.

Looking back to 1980, the top five films were:

The Empire Strikes Back-$210,000,000, 5.2% from opening weekend.
9 to 5-$103,000,000, 3.8% from opening weekend.
Stir Crazy-$101,000,000, 8.6%, from opening weekend.
Airplane!-$83,000,000, (opening unknown)
Any Which way you Can-$71,000,000, 11.4% from opening weekend.

Now lets look at 2009:

Avatar-$745,000,000, 10.3% from opening weekend
Transformers 2-$402,000,000, 27.1% from opening weekend
Harry Potter 6-$302,000,000, 25.8% from opening weekend
New Moon-$297,000,000, 48.2% from opening weekend
Up-$293,000,000, 23.2% from opening weekend

2009 is probably not the best example of this trend however, as Avatar had shocking longevity, and a holiday release, which always marginalizes the opening weekend. Transformers 2 had a five day opening, meaning the opening day is not included in the opening weekend. Harry Potter 6, also had a five day opening.

These days, films with significant legs are a real rarity. One such film is "How to Train Your Dragon". After superior word of mouth (98% on rotten tomatoes) the movie has maintained a steady stream of cash since its somewhat tepid premiere ($43,000,000), and managed to take #1 this weekend. This is an extremely rare case of a film retaking #1 after falling out, something that hasn't happened in a very long time, perhaps ever for a film in its fourth weekend. It now totals $159,000,000, and will probably cross $200 million by the end of its run.

By comparison, Transformers 2 earned $200 million in its five day opening and struggled to get over the $400 million mark. Word of mouth really does help a film.

The Weinstein Co.

On April 3rd, Kanbar Animation (creators of Hoodwinked) sued The Weinstein Co for breach of contract in failing to release the sequel, Hoodwinked 2. Why has Hoodwinked 2 not yet been released? Why is the film completed, and yet no images or trailers have been released? I don't know, but the Weinsteins are certainly in trouble. Here's a list of there films, and whether they bombed, flopped, succeeded, or were a break-out hit. This has been determined by myself, based on knowledge I've gathered, I don't know the actual profit numbers.

Bomb=No way it made money, even with DVD
Flop=Probably lost money, but might have made some on DVD
Success=Made a little money, and probably a lot more on DVD
Hit=Made a large amount of money, before DVD is even figured.

Derailed (2005)-Success
The Libertine (2005)-Flop
Transamerica (2005)-Success
Hoodwinked (2005, Premiere, 2006 Release)-Hit
Mrs Henderson Presents (2005)-Success
The Matador (2005)-Flop
Wolf Creek (2005)-Success
Miss Potter (2006)-Success
Scary Movie 4 (2006)-Hit
Stormbreaker (2006)-Flop
Doogal (2006)-Bomb
Clerks 2 (2006)-Hit
Wordplay (2006)-Bomb
Pulse (2006)-Flop
Shut up & Sing (2006)-Flop
Lassie (2006)-Bomb
School for Scoundrels (2006)-Bomb
Hannibal Rising (2007)-Hit
Grindhouse (2007)-Bomb
The Hunting Party (2007)-Bomb
1408 (2007)-Hit
Dedication (2007)-Bomb
Who's your Caddy (2007)-Bomb
Cassandra's Dream (2007)-Flop
The Mist (2007)-Success
Halloween (2007)-Success
Rogue (2008)-Bomb
Zach & Miri Make a Porno (2008)-Flop
The Reader (2008)-Hit
The Promotion (2008)-Bomb
Capitalism (2009)-Success
Fanboys (2009)-Bomb
Outlander (2009)-Bomb
Halloween 2 (2009)-Success
Janky Promoters (2009)-Bomb
Inglorious Basterds (2009)-Mega Hit
The Road (2009)-Flop
A Single Man (2009)-Success
Nine (2009)-Bomb
Youth in Revolt (2010)-Flop

A very mixed history, seven hits, ten successes, fourteen flops and fourteen bombs. Certainly tilted to the bomby side, explaining there financial troubles. :(

2006: The Year of Animated Glut

Animated films went through a boom in the mid 00's. While previously, one or two, or even no animated films would be released per year, in the 00's almost every year at least 10 animated films invaded cinemas. The most prolific year, was 2006. With twenty animated films released. Twenty. This number does not include straight to DVD films, or films not released in the US. Only for movies released in theaters in the US in 2006. For comparison, here are the surrounding years.

2005-11
2006-20
2007-14
2008-18
2009-15

Furthermoe, all but five of these films entered wide release, leading to an extremely saturated market. Comparitively, 2009 had 12 wide release animated films. For posterity's sake, here are the animated films of 2006, from lowest grossing to highest grossing.

1. Live Freaky Die Freaky (Stop-Motion)-$11,290-1/27-Wellspring
2. Renaissance-$70,644-9/22-Miramax
3. Captain Sabretooth-$20,256-9/22-Indic.
4. Romeo & Juliet: Sealed with a Kiss-$463,002-10/26-Indic.
5. A Scanner Darkly (Rotoscope)-$5,501,616-7/7-WIP
6. Doogal (CG)-$7,417,319-2/24-Weinstein Company
7. Everyone's Hero (CG)-$14,523,101-9/15-Fox
8. Arthur and the Invisibles (CG/Live Action)-$15,132,763-12/29-MGM
9. The Ant Bully (CG)-$28,142,535-7/28-WB
10. The Wild (CG)-$37,384,046-4/14-BV (Disney)
11. Hoodwinked (CG)-$51,386,611-1/13-Weinstein Company
12. Curious George-$58,360,760-2/10-Universal
13. Flushed Away (Claymation)-$64,665,672-11/3-Dreamworks (Ardman)
14. Barnyard (CG)-$72,637,803-8/4-Paramount
15. Monster House (MC CG)-$73,661,010-7/21-Sony
16. Open Season (CG)-$85,105,259-9/29-Sony
17. Over the Hedge (CG)-$155,019,340-5/19-Dreamworks
18. Ice Age 2 (CG)-$195,330,621-3/27-Fox
19. Happy Feat (CG)-$198,000,317-11/17-WB
20. Cars (CG)-$244,082,982-6/9-Pixar