Random Thoughts on Random Things

Cut the rope is a super addictive iPhone game! She & Him Volume 2 is amazing! Weird Al's Alpocalypse Drops Tommorow! True Grit on Blu-Ray! Demetri Martin's This is a Book is fantastic! xxxholic 16! One Stop Anime is closed on Sunday! Death the Kid is the coolest Soul Eater character! Tuesdays are more interesting than mondays! Freeze Pops FTW! Warcraft III holds up even after 9 years! Green Lantern did better than I expected! Super 8 and X-Men did worse than I expected! Thank You NOTES! Corpse Bride Piano Pieces! iPhone notes are useful! Swimming! Modified tube socks=bandit hats! My headphones broke so I'm using a headset! Drawing! Did nothing all day! Laderhosen! Alpine Seahorse! ALKRHOIEHCKHSDTLIHLGSHVDCMETUA"DD:FOSD:FODSFHNCD!

June Preview

So, June is kind of a weird month. In may the studios bring out there brightest and best to kick-start the summer. July offers massive blockbusters to keep things afloat through August. June is sort of a waiting period between them...especially this year.

This time, I'll be comparing this June's releases and commenting on how things could turn out.

June 3
X-Men First Class
Predicted Opening: $70-80 Million
Predicted Final Gross: $175-210 million

June at least starts with a bang, with some worthy holdovers and an undoubtedly big debut. The last entry in the X-Men series, Wolverine, pulled $85 million opening weekend, but bled out quickly with a $179 million final tally. I don't think First Class will be able to pull that, since the TERRIBLE and redundant badger Wolverine is still fresh in people's minds. But if Thor can pull $66 million, than First Class should grab at least $70 up front, and almost certainly more than Wolverine by the end of its run. Last year we had Killers and Get him to the Greek, both major disappointments, and a weak set of Memorial day holdovers. I fully expect First Class alone will outgross the top four, and the rest is just gravy. This weekend will soar over the comparable weekend last year, when Shrek 4 led in its third weekend with just $25.5 million...it certainly couldn't be any worse, the top 5 held only $85.2 million.

June 10
Super 8
Predicted Opening Weekend: $55-65 Million
Predicted Total Gross: Not even gonna guess.

This one is tough to call. Super 8 could really take off, or it could be a non-starter. The real test though, will be how long it sticks around. If it's just another cloverfield, it will stop short of $150 million. If it's the new ET, it will soar past $200 million. Anyway though, I can't imagine a start of less than $50 mil, or above $65 mil. It will probably top last year's Karate Kid remake, and beat out X-Men for the #1 slot, but that's about all I can say. The other new opener is Judy Moody and the not bummer summer. Who cares? Overall, this weekend will again beat last year. With X-Men, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda as holdovers and super 8 as top opener, it will easily fly past $115.1 million top 5 gross, when Karate Kid and A-Team opened on top.

June 17
Green Lantern
Predicted Opening Weekend: $30-40 million
Predicted total Gross: $75-90 million

No one wants to see this movie. No one except comic book fans. And they will see it. But only once. Because it will suck. Everyone knows this. And that's why they won't see it.

Mr. Popper's Penguins
Predicted Opening Weekend: $18-23 million
Predicted Total Gross: $60-80 million

See above but replace comic book fans with families. This looks terrible, but it probably won't bomb outright. Any way this shakes out though, it will be tough for the top 5 to top last year's $166.3 million, when Toy Story 3 (yes Toy Story 3) opened to $110 million. Oops.

June 24
Cars 2
Predicted Opening Gross: $60-70 Million
Predicted Total Gross: $220-240 million

Last year Pixar had it's biggest movie ever (Toy Story 3, although Nemo is still they're #1 in attendance). This year...well they won't. Cars 2 will pull families and only families. Pretty much everyone over age 10 was lukewarm or downright hostile to the original, but the toys are so ubiquitous that the kiddies will have to see it. Probably twice. Still, no matter what I don't see it beating the original's total gross, and certainly not the original's attendance. Even so, it will be one of June's biggest hits.

Bad Teacher
No predictions.

Cameron Diaz new movie comes out on the same weekend as Knight and Day did last year. Bad omen? you bet.

Overall, this weekend should again trail last year's comparable weekend, at least as far as the top 5 is concerned. Last year the top 5 took $141.6 million last year. Don't count on it this year.

May Wrap-Up

Ohh...I'm not that good at this.

April 29-Fast Five
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $83 million
Predicted total Gross: $130 million
Actual Total Gross: $197 million and counting.

Fast Five broke out beyond expectations and remains the top film of 2011, although The Hangover and Pirates sequels are both on the brink of passing it. Color me pleasantly surprised.

May 6-Thor
My Predicted Opening: $50 million
Actual Opening: $66 million
Predicted Total Gross: $120 million
Actual Total Gross: $162 million and counting.

Thor did better than I expected, but is hardly a breakout hit. It won't make $200 million, making it a bit more frontloaded than many were hoping. Good word of mouth can only do so much with something this stupid.

May 13-Who Cares? Bridesmaids did okay I guess.

May 20-Pirates 4
My Predicted Opening: At least $70 million
Actual Opening: $90 million.
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $164 million and counting.

A lot fo people were disappointed with On Stranger Tides $90 million opening. This people were unreasonable. Most (normal) people HATE HATE HATED At world's End, so this was a big win, and the highest end of where I would have predicted.

May 26-Hangover 2
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $86 million
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $135 million and just getting started.

Call it optimism. I didn't think America would lap up the same garbage a second time. Alas, the Hangover Part II made $135 million in five days, accounting for nearly 50% of total memorial day business. Sigh. Thankfully, word of mouth is Bad bad bad, so it might peter out before passing up the first horrible film's completely undeserved $277 million total.

Kung Fu Panda 2
My Predicted Opening: $70 million
Actual Opening: $48 million
Predicted Total Gross: $250 million
Actual Total Gross: $67 million and just getting started.

More optimism. For the record, this movie is awesome and deserves to make way more than this. Thankfully, most people agree with me and the word of mouth will be good. Still, reaching the first movie's $215 million total will be difficult, considering it's three day weekend was down 20% from the last film (even more so in attendance). Here's hoping it pulls a How To Train your Dragon, but it only has 29 days until Cars 2 opens, so I'll give it a safer goal of beating Madagascar 2 (which has earned a sequel) hitting the $180's, and making a killing overseas (which seems likely). PLEASE MAKE KUNG FU PANDA 3!

Overall thoughts:
In my last post I said I probably overestimated a few pictures, it looks like the opposite is mostly true. It was a record breaking memorial day (although not a record breaking may overall), but I still hold to my comments about June: very sketchy.

Stay tuned...

Summer Movie Preview: Part 1-May: The Kick-Off

Summer movie season starts in may. Here are the major releases and how much I think they'll make.

April 29

Wait, April? May starts in May you idiot! Well it starts a week earlier this year with:

FAST FIVE (Aka Fast and Furious 5, aka 5 Fast 5 Furious, aka Fast and Furious: This one has Dwayne Johnson)

Est Opening Weekend: Around $60 million
Est total gross: $130 million

Fast and Furious has something of a sordid history, but the last installment made a suprisingly strong $71 million it's opening weekend in April 2009 (outgrossing Tokyo Drift, the previous installment, in just three days), en route to a front-loaded $155 million. I don't expect this movie to match that one's hieghts though. Fast and Furious came out three years after nobody saw Tokyo Drift. It was really more like a six-year absence for the series, and an eight year absence between titles featuring Vin Diesel. Crazy stupid action movies just weren't made often. Now they are, and so I expect a softer, but still huge, opening for the fifth chapter, leading to a relatively small total. Dwayne Johnson is boss.

May 6

THOR (Aka Tor, aka Kenneth Branagh sells out, aka Worst Movie Ever)

Est. Opening Weekend-Around $50 million
Est. Total Gross-$120 million

Thor is not the next Iron Man. It will lose business to the second weekend of Fast Five, but it should hold well against the nothingness that launches May 13. Overall, expect a pretty average gross, falling short of its $150 million. The fanboys have been brainwashed into liking it, but basically no one else will attend.

May 13

NOTHING WORTH NOTING COMES OUT! JUST MORE GARBAGE!

May 20

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (aka Jack is Back, aka This one cost half what the last one did, aka Let's hope this doesn't suck)

Est opening weekend-$70+ million
Est Total Gross-$200 million

This is something of a wildcard. It could pull $90 million out of thin air or it could struggle to hit $50. Whatever the case, it won't match the $114 million opening of At World's End, for the simple reason that At World's End sucked. Bad. Also the dramatic stakes simply aren't there, and there's been virtually no real money shots (Because a relatively modest $140 million was spent here, versus $300 million for the last installment). Even so, it should be a success, Captain Jack is an icon at this point and it's been long enough for people to forgive At World's End (Plus there are a few idiots who actually liked that movie, so...) Expect it to keep up well over memorial day, and keep going throughout June...unless it really sucks.

May 26 (yeah, thursday, because Indiana Jones did it and had a truckload of money over a five day Memorial day weekend back in 2008)

The Hangover Part II

Est Opening: Around $60 million (80 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $200 million

The Hangover Part II is the hangover part I, but this time it's in Bangcok. This has turned off the more intelligent potential viewers, but I don't think they're what made the first one a hit anyway. Expect around $80 million over the five day memorial weekend, falling fast and ending around $200 million...although I wouldn't be surprised if it did a lot less than that.

Kung Fu Panda 2

Est Opening: Around $70 million (nearly 100 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $250 million

I fully expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to surpass the first one in terms of gross. Opening on memorial day, and playing through june without family competition, it should do exceedingly well for dreamworks. The first Kung Fu Panda was Dreamworks best received film since Shrek 2. Jack Black isn't the star he was three years ago (coming off of his latest bomb "Gulliver's Travels") but I wonder if he was that much of a draw three years ago either.

So overall the summer will get off to a good start, even if I've overestimated a few pictures. June however, is a bit more sketchy.

Shonen Anime and Feminism. Oh yeah, I went there.

Oh shonen anime, what are we going to do with you? I really don't watch much of it anymore, because frankly, it's garbage. Even so, I can still gripe about negative messages seen within it, specifically the portrayal of female characters in the genre. Most female characters in shonen anime exist solely for the purpose of fanservice, and/or to provide the main character with a love interest. Perhaps the most heinous offender in this area is Naruto. Sakura, the only character that doesn't exist completely for the purpose of fanservice, is only interested in one thing: Sasuke. Of course her entire goal in life is to find a big strong man to take care of her. -_- Not only that, she's also by far the weakest member of the team and is basically useless in a fight, until Shippuden when she becomes slightly less useless. Here's Typical scene from Naruto. Kakashi: Naruto, Sasuke, get that bad dood. While I take on the other bad dood. Sakura: What do I Do? Kakashi: Sit here and yell from the sidelines with nameless captive/hostage dood. Sakura: Lame Sasuke: Shut up and make me a sammich! Sakura: Oh Sasuke, whatever you say u r so hawt! Sasuke: Das right, now get me that sammich! You get the idea. Most other popular shonen anime follow this trend, most notably Bleach. (I love Deathnote, but wow is Misa useless). There are exceptions. Code Geass is relatively progressive, with at least one strong female character. By shonen standards, Soul Eater is practically a feminist manifesto, and this is where I really start to whine. At first it seems very progressive for shonen. Maka is really our main character, despite Soul Eater being the titular character. She's strong, independent and is not the victim of fanservice. Of course Blair is also in the first episode, and she is blatantly there to pander, but hey Shonen is Shonen. Two of the main villians, Arachnae and Medusa are strong female characters. The professors are also great female role models (Marie has a few "moe points" but overall still a relatively strong character). At first I thought I might take issue with Tsubaki and The Twins, they sort of bring the "women as objects" argument to a whole new level. (especially since their souls are naked when in weapon form. 0_O). However, Soul is also an object in a sense (as is Maka's dad) and they appear naked as well, so it works out. I was content with the politics of gender in Soul Eater, it felt empowering and right...until episode 33. In this episode it is heavily implied, if not outright stated, that Maka is the weakest of the three meisters. Of course a GIRL couldn't be an effective meister, pshhh! I suppose this could be nitpicking, but since she's the only major female meister (and arguably the main character) it seems like a poor move. I'm hoping Soul Eater redeems itself, but even if it doesn't it's still much better than any other Shonen Anime I've seen in this respect. ...maybe I'm reading too much into it.

New Production Studios: How we doing?

Last weekend, a new movie distributer "Film District" opened its first film "Insidious" to $13.3 million dollars. Considering the movie cost $1.5 million, that's a big win. Actually, over the last year or so there have been a couple of new studios. Let's have a look. Relativity Media: Current Score 1 out of 4 Relativity Media released its first picture "The Warriors Way" back in December. Didn't see it? Well neither did anyone else. Despite lacking a major star (No Geoffrey Rush doesn't count) the movie cost $42 million to make and earned less than $6 million back domestically and less than $10 million worldwide. Fail. Their second release fared a little better. Season of the Witch earned $24 million domestically and over $81 million worldwide (and counting) on a $40 million budget. Not great, but a little profitable. Third release "Take me home Tonight" was another bomb, earning less than $7 million on a budget that has yet to be revealed (but likely ain't too pretty). They finally launched their first hit a few weeks ago, Bradley Cooper vehicle Limitless has earned $55 million so far domestically on a $27 million budget, and it's still going strong. At its present pace it could cross $80 million by the end of its run, making it a big win for Relativity, and just maybe save the studio from an early death. CBS Films: 1 out of 5 (so far) I'll make this quick. CBS films has made five movies, four of which have yet to be profitable. The Back Up Plan is there only mild success, although Beastly will probably turn a profit once it goes overseas. I might update this with more in-depth info later.

Biggest Bombs of All Time

This weekend Mars Needs Moms bombed BIG TIME at the box office...and I couldn't be happier. It looked horrible. Apparently it was horrible. In three weeks, it should be gone. You see, theaters are obligated to carry a film for 2 weeks, before dropping it. For box office flops, the third weekend is usually the last, or darn well close to it. There are many ways to determine what the biggest flop of all time is. Here are a few dubious honors.

Biggest Actual Loss: Cutthroat Island

Pirate movies are expensive. And typically unpopular, which is why there aren't many of them made. Pirates of the Caribbean is the one exception in the last twenty or so years. Cutthroat Island is the biggest bomb of all time in traditional terms. It cost $115,000,000 with marketing and made about $10,000,000 worldwide box office. That's an estimated loss of $105,000,000 (actually more when you consider that a certain % of the gross went to the theaters, not the studio) which adjusts to nearly $147 million today. Wow. It bankrupted Carolco Pictures, and hurt MGM big-time. This, along with a string of other flops, eventually killed MGM as a distributer. Talk about bad Juju.

Worst Opening Weekend at over 3,000 theaters: Hoot

May 5th, 2006, matched against Mission Impossible, at a massive 3,018 theaters, New Line Cinema released a movie about kids standing up to the establishment to save an owl. Too bad nobody gave a hoot, and it grossed only $3.4 million, ranking 10th for the weekend. It's average of $1,116 was even worst than Disney's bomb, "The Wild" in 12th place...in its FOURTH WEEKEND. It's second weekend was a relatively okay drop, (considering the bad word of mouth), dropping only 32%. But dropping 32% from an already disastrous opening, is still not good, and it was expelled from 2,200 theaters, left playing at only 818. This triggered a third weekend drop of 82%, and Hoot ended its run after five weeks with only a little over $8 mil.

Biggest Third Weekend Theater Drop: Meet Dave

Meet Dave was a flop. Opening at 3,011 theaters (that's a lot, trust me) it earned only $5.3 million, ranking seventh at the box office. That's the third worst opening for a movie playing at over 3,000 theaters, behind "Hoot" and "The Seeker: The Dark is Rising". Unlike those two films though, Dave was in the middle of the busy summer season, and there was much better films the theaters wanted to play instead of the unprofitable Dave (which averaged just $1,744 per theater, compared with $2,334 average for the #6 film that weekend, Get Smart...which was in its FOURTH WEEKEND!). After a 68% second weekend drop (then averaging just $551, raking #11 for the weekend, behind Kung Fu Panda, which averaged $1,236...in its SEVENTH WEEKEND) it was kicked out of 2,523 theaters, left playing at only 448. Dave ended his run with less than $12 million, on a $60 million budget. Ouch.

Worst Opening at over 2,000 Theaters: Delgo

I said earlier that Theaters are usually obligated to carry a film for at least two weeks before kicking it out and playing something successful. That's not always the case though. There are limits. Say hello to Delgo, arguably the biggest bomb of all time. Opening at 2,160 theaters, Delgo earned only $512,000 for a per theater average of $237. That's horrible. Delgo left theaters after seven days with less than $700k. I can only imagine that the studio was so embararessed that they wanted to save some face on the horrible misfortune that had befallen them. For perspective, the second worst opening at over 2,000 theaters was for P2, which earned over $2million at 2,131 theaters. Delgo is the worst, by a wide margin.

Worst Opening for a wide Release (600+ Theters): Proud American

Never heard of it? Don't worry, no one else has either. Opening at 750 theaters, Proud American earned only $96,076, averaging $128 per theater, an all time worst for a wide release opening. Unlike Delgo, it managed to stick around 14 days, but it lost 744 theaters it's second weekend, and 99.6% of it's gross. It left theaters with only $131,000. Words fail me.