Monday, July 4, 2011

July Preview

Wow, I'm not that good at these things. I over-estimated Super 8 and to a lesser extend X-Men fisrt class, and underestimated Green Lantern. Cars 2 was always up in the air for me. Transformers is already done, so let's get to the real July releases.

July 8
Zookeeper (aka, Rewarmed Turd in the Microwave)
Opening Prediction: $30-35 million
Final Gross Prediction: $120-135 million.

The less said about this the better. It looks like crap obviously, but it will have to work hard not to make at least a little money. I hope it's the next marmaduke, but it's more likely gonna be a poor-man's night at the museum.

Horrible Bosses
Opening Prediction: $20-30 million
Final Gross Prediction: $100 million tops.

I don't see this taking off, it sounded promising at first but the marketing is confused and confusing. It'll be lucky to get above $25 million opening, which basically ensures it won't be a true break-out hit, although if word of mouth is good it could stick around.

July 15
Harry Potter and the Warner Bros need more Money (Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Opening Prediction: $135-$160 million
Final Gross Prediction: $320 million+

After Transformers 3 hit a relatively meh note (considering how spectacular Revenge of the Fallen's five day sprint was) it is now basically a fact that Deathly Hallows Part 2 will be the year's top film. The question is, just how well will it do? The answer is, insanely well. This is the first movie that feels like it has a real shot of breaking the Dark Knight's opening record of $158 million. It's total gross will obviously trail that by a lot, but it should eclipse the first Harry Potter (I'm expecting a bit of Revenge of the Sith type comeback here). Of course in terms of attendance, it won't come close, but I wouldn't put a $350 million total past it. Unlike the previous few potter's, this one seems to have some real re-watchability, and should see more repeat business (especially if it's, you know, good). Sky's really the limit on this one.

I'm tired. I will update this later.

But, it did really well overseas!

I knew it would happen, and now it has. The US is still the biggest market for films in the world, but it's becoming less and less significant.

Perhaps the best way to show this is a look at the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.

2003-Pirates of the Caribbean: Domestic-$305 million, Overseas-$348 million,
Worldwide-$654 million
2006-Dead Man's Chest: Domestic-$423 million, Overseas-$643 million,
Worldwide-$1,066 million
2007-At World's End: Domestic-$309 million, Overseas-$654 million,
Worldwide-$963 million.

So, despite a mildly disappointing run domestically, At World's End made more overseas than the previous two pictures, not only that, but it's overseas tally was equal to the worldwide tally of the first film. This shows a great growth in the overseas market, but that's only the beginning.

2011-On Stranger Tides: Domestic-$233 million (so far), Overseas: $774 million(!So far!),
Worldwide-$1,008 million.

On stranger tides could surpass the worldwide gross of Dead Man's Chest, despite a massive drop in domestic grosses. In fact, the domestic gross was almost irrelevant to it's success!

This has been a definite trend in the summer's films.

Thor: $178M domestic, $262M overseas, $440M Worldwide.
The Hangover Part II: $248M domestic, $300M overseas, $548M worldwide.
Kung Fu Panda 2: $157M domestic, $374M overseas, $531M worldwide
X-Men First Class: $139M domestic, $196M overseas, $334M worldwide
Transformers 3: $162M domestic, $210M overseas, $372M worldwide.

Seems pretty clear. You'll notice I exempted Bridesmaids (one of the biggest domestic hits of the year) Green Lantern, Super 8 and Cars 2. All of these films are taking a slow-roll-out approach and we probably won't have a good idea of where they'll end up worldwide until the end of the month, when they open in more territories. Super 8 seems the most likely to disappoint overseas, but it should still easily match it's domestic gross.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Random Thoughts on Random Things

Cut the rope is a super addictive iPhone game! She & Him Volume 2 is amazing! Weird Al's Alpocalypse Drops Tommorow! True Grit on Blu-Ray! Demetri Martin's This is a Book is fantastic! xxxholic 16! One Stop Anime is closed on Sunday! Death the Kid is the coolest Soul Eater character! Tuesdays are more interesting than mondays! Freeze Pops FTW! Warcraft III holds up even after 9 years! Green Lantern did better than I expected! Super 8 and X-Men did worse than I expected! Thank You NOTES! Corpse Bride Piano Pieces! iPhone notes are useful! Swimming! Modified tube socks=bandit hats! My headphones broke so I'm using a headset! Drawing! Did nothing all day! Laderhosen! Alpine Seahorse! ALKRHOIEHCKHSDTLIHLGSHVDCMETUA"DD:FOSD:FODSFHNCD!

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

June Preview

So, June is kind of a weird month. In may the studios bring out there brightest and best to kick-start the summer. July offers massive blockbusters to keep things afloat through August. June is sort of a waiting period between them...especially this year.

This time, I'll be comparing this June's releases and commenting on how things could turn out.

June 3
X-Men First Class
Predicted Opening: $70-80 Million
Predicted Final Gross: $175-210 million

June at least starts with a bang, with some worthy holdovers and an undoubtedly big debut. The last entry in the X-Men series, Wolverine, pulled $85 million opening weekend, but bled out quickly with a $179 million final tally. I don't think First Class will be able to pull that, since the TERRIBLE and redundant badger Wolverine is still fresh in people's minds. But if Thor can pull $66 million, than First Class should grab at least $70 up front, and almost certainly more than Wolverine by the end of its run. Last year we had Killers and Get him to the Greek, both major disappointments, and a weak set of Memorial day holdovers. I fully expect First Class alone will outgross the top four, and the rest is just gravy. This weekend will soar over the comparable weekend last year, when Shrek 4 led in its third weekend with just $25.5 million...it certainly couldn't be any worse, the top 5 held only $85.2 million.

June 10
Super 8
Predicted Opening Weekend: $55-65 Million
Predicted Total Gross: Not even gonna guess.

This one is tough to call. Super 8 could really take off, or it could be a non-starter. The real test though, will be how long it sticks around. If it's just another cloverfield, it will stop short of $150 million. If it's the new ET, it will soar past $200 million. Anyway though, I can't imagine a start of less than $50 mil, or above $65 mil. It will probably top last year's Karate Kid remake, and beat out X-Men for the #1 slot, but that's about all I can say. The other new opener is Judy Moody and the not bummer summer. Who cares? Overall, this weekend will again beat last year. With X-Men, Hangover and Kung Fu Panda as holdovers and super 8 as top opener, it will easily fly past $115.1 million top 5 gross, when Karate Kid and A-Team opened on top.

June 17
Green Lantern
Predicted Opening Weekend: $30-40 million
Predicted total Gross: $75-90 million

No one wants to see this movie. No one except comic book fans. And they will see it. But only once. Because it will suck. Everyone knows this. And that's why they won't see it.

Mr. Popper's Penguins
Predicted Opening Weekend: $18-23 million
Predicted Total Gross: $60-80 million

See above but replace comic book fans with families. This looks terrible, but it probably won't bomb outright. Any way this shakes out though, it will be tough for the top 5 to top last year's $166.3 million, when Toy Story 3 (yes Toy Story 3) opened to $110 million. Oops.

June 24
Cars 2
Predicted Opening Gross: $60-70 Million
Predicted Total Gross: $220-240 million

Last year Pixar had it's biggest movie ever (Toy Story 3, although Nemo is still they're #1 in attendance). This year...well they won't. Cars 2 will pull families and only families. Pretty much everyone over age 10 was lukewarm or downright hostile to the original, but the toys are so ubiquitous that the kiddies will have to see it. Probably twice. Still, no matter what I don't see it beating the original's total gross, and certainly not the original's attendance. Even so, it will be one of June's biggest hits.

Bad Teacher
No predictions.

Cameron Diaz new movie comes out on the same weekend as Knight and Day did last year. Bad omen? you bet.

Overall, this weekend should again trail last year's comparable weekend, at least as far as the top 5 is concerned. Last year the top 5 took $141.6 million last year. Don't count on it this year.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

May Wrap-Up

Ohh...I'm not that good at this.

April 29-Fast Five
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $83 million
Predicted total Gross: $130 million
Actual Total Gross: $197 million and counting.

Fast Five broke out beyond expectations and remains the top film of 2011, although The Hangover and Pirates sequels are both on the brink of passing it. Color me pleasantly surprised.

May 6-Thor
My Predicted Opening: $50 million
Actual Opening: $66 million
Predicted Total Gross: $120 million
Actual Total Gross: $162 million and counting.

Thor did better than I expected, but is hardly a breakout hit. It won't make $200 million, making it a bit more frontloaded than many were hoping. Good word of mouth can only do so much with something this stupid.

May 13-Who Cares? Bridesmaids did okay I guess.

May 20-Pirates 4
My Predicted Opening: At least $70 million
Actual Opening: $90 million.
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $164 million and counting.

A lot fo people were disappointed with On Stranger Tides $90 million opening. This people were unreasonable. Most (normal) people HATE HATE HATED At world's End, so this was a big win, and the highest end of where I would have predicted.

May 26-Hangover 2
My Predicted Opening: $60 million
Actual Opening: $86 million
Predicted Total Gross: $200 million
Actual Total Gross: $135 million and just getting started.

Call it optimism. I didn't think America would lap up the same garbage a second time. Alas, the Hangover Part II made $135 million in five days, accounting for nearly 50% of total memorial day business. Sigh. Thankfully, word of mouth is Bad bad bad, so it might peter out before passing up the first horrible film's completely undeserved $277 million total.

Kung Fu Panda 2
My Predicted Opening: $70 million
Actual Opening: $48 million
Predicted Total Gross: $250 million
Actual Total Gross: $67 million and just getting started.

More optimism. For the record, this movie is awesome and deserves to make way more than this. Thankfully, most people agree with me and the word of mouth will be good. Still, reaching the first movie's $215 million total will be difficult, considering it's three day weekend was down 20% from the last film (even more so in attendance). Here's hoping it pulls a How To Train your Dragon, but it only has 29 days until Cars 2 opens, so I'll give it a safer goal of beating Madagascar 2 (which has earned a sequel) hitting the $180's, and making a killing overseas (which seems likely). PLEASE MAKE KUNG FU PANDA 3!

Overall thoughts:
In my last post I said I probably overestimated a few pictures, it looks like the opposite is mostly true. It was a record breaking memorial day (although not a record breaking may overall), but I still hold to my comments about June: very sketchy.

Stay tuned...

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Summer Movie Preview: Part 1-May: The Kick-Off

Summer movie season starts in may. Here are the major releases and how much I think they'll make.

April 29

Wait, April? May starts in May you idiot! Well it starts a week earlier this year with:

FAST FIVE (Aka Fast and Furious 5, aka 5 Fast 5 Furious, aka Fast and Furious: This one has Dwayne Johnson)

Est Opening Weekend: Around $60 million
Est total gross: $130 million

Fast and Furious has something of a sordid history, but the last installment made a suprisingly strong $71 million it's opening weekend in April 2009 (outgrossing Tokyo Drift, the previous installment, in just three days), en route to a front-loaded $155 million. I don't expect this movie to match that one's hieghts though. Fast and Furious came out three years after nobody saw Tokyo Drift. It was really more like a six-year absence for the series, and an eight year absence between titles featuring Vin Diesel. Crazy stupid action movies just weren't made often. Now they are, and so I expect a softer, but still huge, opening for the fifth chapter, leading to a relatively small total. Dwayne Johnson is boss.

May 6

THOR (Aka Tor, aka Kenneth Branagh sells out, aka Worst Movie Ever)

Est. Opening Weekend-Around $50 million
Est. Total Gross-$120 million

Thor is not the next Iron Man. It will lose business to the second weekend of Fast Five, but it should hold well against the nothingness that launches May 13. Overall, expect a pretty average gross, falling short of its $150 million. The fanboys have been brainwashed into liking it, but basically no one else will attend.

May 13

NOTHING WORTH NOTING COMES OUT! JUST MORE GARBAGE!

May 20

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (aka Jack is Back, aka This one cost half what the last one did, aka Let's hope this doesn't suck)

Est opening weekend-$70+ million
Est Total Gross-$200 million

This is something of a wildcard. It could pull $90 million out of thin air or it could struggle to hit $50. Whatever the case, it won't match the $114 million opening of At World's End, for the simple reason that At World's End sucked. Bad. Also the dramatic stakes simply aren't there, and there's been virtually no real money shots (Because a relatively modest $140 million was spent here, versus $300 million for the last installment). Even so, it should be a success, Captain Jack is an icon at this point and it's been long enough for people to forgive At World's End (Plus there are a few idiots who actually liked that movie, so...) Expect it to keep up well over memorial day, and keep going throughout June...unless it really sucks.

May 26 (yeah, thursday, because Indiana Jones did it and had a truckload of money over a five day Memorial day weekend back in 2008)

The Hangover Part II

Est Opening: Around $60 million (80 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $200 million

The Hangover Part II is the hangover part I, but this time it's in Bangcok. This has turned off the more intelligent potential viewers, but I don't think they're what made the first one a hit anyway. Expect around $80 million over the five day memorial weekend, falling fast and ending around $200 million...although I wouldn't be surprised if it did a lot less than that.

Kung Fu Panda 2

Est Opening: Around $70 million (nearly 100 over the five day)
Est Final Gross: Around $250 million

I fully expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to surpass the first one in terms of gross. Opening on memorial day, and playing through june without family competition, it should do exceedingly well for dreamworks. The first Kung Fu Panda was Dreamworks best received film since Shrek 2. Jack Black isn't the star he was three years ago (coming off of his latest bomb "Gulliver's Travels") but I wonder if he was that much of a draw three years ago either.

So overall the summer will get off to a good start, even if I've overestimated a few pictures. June however, is a bit more sketchy.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Shonen Anime and Feminism. Oh yeah, I went there.

Oh shonen anime, what are we going to do with you? I really don't watch much of it anymore, because frankly, it's garbage. Even so, I can still gripe about negative messages seen within it, specifically the portrayal of female characters in the genre. Most female characters in shonen anime exist solely for the purpose of fanservice, and/or to provide the main character with a love interest. Perhaps the most heinous offender in this area is Naruto. Sakura, the only character that doesn't exist completely for the purpose of fanservice, is only interested in one thing: Sasuke. Of course her entire goal in life is to find a big strong man to take care of her. -_- Not only that, she's also by far the weakest member of the team and is basically useless in a fight, until Shippuden when she becomes slightly less useless. Here's Typical scene from Naruto. Kakashi: Naruto, Sasuke, get that bad dood. While I take on the other bad dood. Sakura: What do I Do? Kakashi: Sit here and yell from the sidelines with nameless captive/hostage dood. Sakura: Lame Sasuke: Shut up and make me a sammich! Sakura: Oh Sasuke, whatever you say u r so hawt! Sasuke: Das right, now get me that sammich! You get the idea. Most other popular shonen anime follow this trend, most notably Bleach. (I love Deathnote, but wow is Misa useless). There are exceptions. Code Geass is relatively progressive, with at least one strong female character. By shonen standards, Soul Eater is practically a feminist manifesto, and this is where I really start to whine. At first it seems very progressive for shonen. Maka is really our main character, despite Soul Eater being the titular character. She's strong, independent and is not the victim of fanservice. Of course Blair is also in the first episode, and she is blatantly there to pander, but hey Shonen is Shonen. Two of the main villians, Arachnae and Medusa are strong female characters. The professors are also great female role models (Marie has a few "moe points" but overall still a relatively strong character). At first I thought I might take issue with Tsubaki and The Twins, they sort of bring the "women as objects" argument to a whole new level. (especially since their souls are naked when in weapon form. 0_O). However, Soul is also an object in a sense (as is Maka's dad) and they appear naked as well, so it works out. I was content with the politics of gender in Soul Eater, it felt empowering and right...until episode 33. In this episode it is heavily implied, if not outright stated, that Maka is the weakest of the three meisters. Of course a GIRL couldn't be an effective meister, pshhh! I suppose this could be nitpicking, but since she's the only major female meister (and arguably the main character) it seems like a poor move. I'm hoping Soul Eater redeems itself, but even if it doesn't it's still much better than any other Shonen Anime I've seen in this respect. ...maybe I'm reading too much into it.